Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 010446
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Shortwave trough over South Dakota will move southeast this evening
and interact with boundary and moisture/instability axis across
Nebraska to generate isolated/widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This precipitation may move/develop into the northern
portions of the county warning area this evening and overnight
before weakening/dissipating by sunrise as the shortwave exits.
Models are suggesting slightly more elevated cape than previous runs
with the steeper mid level lapse rates. Have therefore added a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the highway 36
corridor...although any rainfall amounts are expected to be light
and spotty. Will then keep the forecast dry during the day Friday
with weak subsidence in the wake of departing shortwave
trough...although the mid level clouds will be slower to thin over
the eastern counties. Either way...mostly sunny skies overall should
aid high temperatures to rebound into the middle to upper
80s...with around 90 expected in the Abilene area. Light south winds
in the morning will back to the east and southeast in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A broad upper level ridge across the southwestern US will gradually
expand east into the southern and central plains.

Saturday through Tuesday, expect mostly clear skies with highs
warming through the mid and upper 80s Saturday, upper 80s to lower
90s Sunday then lower to mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s.

Tuesday night through Thursday, The extended range models all
show an upper level trough moving east across the northern and
central plains. Ascent ahead of the H5 trough combined with
surface convergence ahead of a slow moving front will provide
northeast KS with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night through Thursday. The increase in cloud cover and a
slightly cooler airmass behind the front will keep highs a bit
cooler in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR expected through the period. May see isolated shra/ts near taf
sites but still not widespread enough for more than vc. Will clear
out 13/14z as wave passes into Missouri.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67





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