


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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873 FXUS63 KTOP 102336 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for storms increase (30%) this evening and overnight, mainly across north central Kansas. These storms are expected to weaken as they enter the area, but could produce some strong wind gusts. - A cold front moves into the area on Friday, bringing another chance for storms. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. - Cooler on Saturday with highs in the 80s, but near-normal temperatures return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Northeast Kansas resides between this morning`s shortwave and another wave over the central High Plains this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 90s with humid conditions creating heat indices around 100 degrees this afternoon. The Rockies wave advances east this evening and overnight, sparking convection along a weak surface boundary that extends from southwest Kansas into central Nebraska. The surface boundary and better mid-level forcing are displaced to the north and west of the local area and increasing inhibition during the overnight hours should lead to weakening of convection with eastward extent. Thus, highest chances for severe weather are west of the forecast area, but there could be a few strong to severe wind gusts if elevated convection remains more organized as it enters the area. The surface front will be the focus of convective initiation Friday afternoon as the EML erodes. The location of this boundary by the afternoon remains varied among guidance, but is favored to reside somewhere along or north of Interstate 70. Forecast soundings depict 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but effective shear is progged to be rather weak. Large-scale forcing is also lacking with only a couple of subtle shortwaves moving through. Weak lift from a passing wave and convergence along the front should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the afternoon (3-5 PM for initial storm development) and continue into the evening and overnight hours as the front works its way through the area. While weak shear and lift will limit the coverage of any severe weather, inverted-V soundings and DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg will support strong to severe wind gusts with these storms during the afternoon and evening hours. PWATS around 1.75" will support heavy rainfall with storms as well, but there isn`t a strong signal for backbuilding of convection and any flooding issues would likely be localized in nature. Showers and storms linger into the morning hours of Saturday before conditions dry out as surface ridging builds in. Cooler air is expected for Saturday with highs in the 80s before southerly flow returns on Sunday and temperatures warm back near normal into early next week. Several passing waves keep low chances for showers and storms in the forecast through Monday, but the next best chance for precipitation comes Tuesday through Wednesday as a more potent perturbation and stronger front move through the area. Cooler conditions are favored behind this system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A line of storms will develop across western KS but should dissipate before reaching the terminals. A remnant storm may move close to the KMHK terminal by 6Z but should weaken and shift northeast of the terminal after 8z. There may be another chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop around the terminals Friday afternoon and evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Gargan