Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 262324

524 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwesterly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the 00z TAFs, cigs have begun to clear out near KMHK with MVFR
cigs expected to linger over KTOP/KFOE through mid evening before
improving to VFR conditions. Expect the breezy northwesterly winds
to subside this evening and become light overnight as surface high
pressure tracks eastward over the area. This shifting surface high
also will result in winds veering to the southeast Thursday morning.




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