Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 230958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke






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