Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 030917
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
417 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER IOWA AT 08Z AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED INTO EASTERN KANSAS. REGIONAL VWP PROFILES
SHOW A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM WAVES MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. MEASOANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. SHEAR IS MARGINAL THIS MORNING IN THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE THEN DECREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE
THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING LOOK TO BREAKUP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO AREAS FROM BURLINGTON
TO GARNETT EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY/JULY 4TH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN KS
MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF HIGH WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY. THAT
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER LEADS TO A
CAP IN THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF KS. THIS DESPITE
A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHEAST KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FIREWORKS
INTERRUPTION WOULD BE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING WITH
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN WARM ADVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MODEL APPEARS
TO FORM AN MCS THAT BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE SOUTHEAST...LEAVING
NORTHEAST KS DRY OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEST IN THE NORTH CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING, THEN STAYING MOSTLY
WEST OF U.S. 75 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...UPPER HEIGHTS RISE OVER EASTERN KS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...LEADING TO LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING POPS OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

AFTER THAT...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. GFS HAS A
WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES RELATIVELY BENIGN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. OF
COURSE THAT FAR OUT, GFSENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH 12Z AS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LIGHT WINDS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LOW END MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS OVER TERMINALS AT 6Z. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
EVENING, BELIEVE THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE
STRATUS DECK. UTILIZING UPSTREAM OBS, MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING. WHILE STRATUS APPEARS
MORE LIKELY THAN FOG AT THIS TIME, COULD HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR
SUNRISE. BY THE AFTERNOON CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR
FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN



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