Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 160919
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Latest water vapor satellite loop shows the negative tilt upper
moving northeast into the eastern texas panhandle with a
deformation zone across southern Kansas moving north. Profilers
show diffluent flow aloft across central and eastern Kansas while
regional radar shows a large area of precipitation across southern
and central Kansas moving north. Expect widespread precipitation
to continue through the bulk of the morning hours as the upper low
moves northeast into northeast Kansas by 00Z Tuesday. A surface
low pressure moves northeast across northeast Kansas this
afternoon in concert with the track of the upper low. Some wrap
around precipitation is expected through the evening hours within
the trowal as the system moves off to the northeast. Precipitation
type still looks to be freezing rain across north central and far
northern Kansas into the mid to late morning hours and will
continue with the current ice storm warning in those areas through
18Z. Areas just to the southeast will see a mix of rain or
freezing rain through 12Z and will keep this area until then.
Temperatures should continue to increase through the day across
the area ending the threat for freezing rain. Ice accumulations
this morning across north central Kansas should range from a tenth
to two tenths of an inch. Temperatures should top out in the mid
30s in north central Kansas to the lower 50s in east central
Kansas. Tonight precipitation will come to an end in the evening
hours as lift shifts off to the northeast as the upper low
departs. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the surface low
tonight. Cold advection will send temperatures down into the mid
20s to lower 30s across the cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Clearing of low cloud takes place during the day Tuesday on west to
northwest winds. Weak cold air advection from tonight keeps highs
from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Flow through much of the
troposphere goes to the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday night
as upper energy sinking south through the Great Basin today makes
slow east the northeast progress across the Southern Rockies and
into the Central Plains. Moisture and forcing with this system are
weak at best, keeping skies mainly clear and allowing for warmer
temperatures into the late week. Then NAM, and to a lesser extent
the GFS, attempt to build in low stratus and perhaps fog Wednesday
night, but they seem to keep the boundary layer too cold, likely an
artifact of model-produced snow with the ongoing event.

Fast westerly upper flow across the eastern Pacific brings a
weakening wave into the High Plains Friday, and a stronger wave for
the weekend. Precip chances remain low however with lack of quality
moisture one limiting factor. Could see light mixed precip Saturday
night and Sunday morning, though with amounts appearing light and
temps still on the warm side, any impacts look rather low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Not much change in forecast thinking with the storm system finally
beginning to lift through the southern plains. Think IFR and LIFR
conditions will prevail as long as the surface low remains south
and the low level warm air advection pattern persists. Then as the
surface low passes to the northeast, wrap around moisture is
likely to keep low CIGS in the terminals into Monday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ008>012-020-021-
034.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
KSZ022>024-035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters


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