Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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982
FXUS63 KTOP 250814
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Upper low continues to fill as it moves northeast into central
portions of Wyoming. Associated cold front was from southwest
Kansas to northeast Nebraska early this morning with temps ranging
from 55 at NRN to 73 at SLN. Most precipitation remains behind the
front but enough isentropic upglide and moisture convergence for
scattered activity ahead of it, and enough instability for some
thunder as well.

Have attempted to give some greater detail in expectations, but much
will depend on minor perturbations in the flow. Precipition should
generally increase in coverage from northwest to southeast through
tonight as the cold front pushes on through, but should see at least
isolated activity ahead of it in weak but deep mid-level isentropic
upglide. Models differ on the amount of instability, though modest
shear and mid-level lapse rates below 6 C/km should keep anything
more than a brief strong updraft in check. Enough flow along the
front for some training potential continues, but lack of strong or
focused forcing and dry antecedent conditions keeps flood concern
low. Front moving through and pre-frontal precip potential brings
some uncertainty on how high temps will get today and could easily
see at 20 degree spread across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday
morning across northeast Kansas. This post-frontal precipitation
should diminish in intensity through the day Tuesday as already
weak instability becomes even weaker through the afternoon
Tuesday. Any scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
begin clearing the area from northwest to southeast, with the
majority of precipitation out of the area Tuesday night. The
GFS/ECMWF holds on to some light precipitation in east central
Kansas Wednesday morning, however, the NAM is completely dry by
this time. Have kept the small chances for precipition during this
period, with all chances for any showers gone by the afternoon.
Tuesday will be cool and overcast with highs ranging from the mid
60s in north central Kansas to the mid-70s in east central Kansas.

Surface high pressure moves into the area after this system and will
leave conditions dry and temperatures seasonable for late September.
High temperatures from Wednesday onward will be in the 70s, with
lows in the upper 40s or low 50s.  The influence of surface high
pressure breaks down by mid-weekend with slight chances for
precipitation again Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

There may be a few isolated showers around MHK after midnight. The
showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage after
13Z at KMHK and gradually spread east into the KTOP and KFOE area
during the afternoon hours and continue Monday night. If there are
heavier showers at the terminals, there could be brief periods of
MVFR visibilities and ceilings.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan



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