Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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099
FXUS63 KTOP 082124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Very cold conditions remain in place across the forecast area today
with a persistent northwest breeze keeping the wind chill in the
teens for most of the region. Surface high pressure was gradually
shifting east across western KS and NE. This surface high will move
over the local forecast area between 06Z and 15Z tonight, but due to
the strength of the high there is a decent pressure gradient on its
eastern edge which will likely act to keep a breeze going through
the night with the exception of areas directly under the center of
the high and the most efficient valleys and cold air drainage areas.
Also, while the winds will decrease with time, an area of high
clouds will also build across the area between 09Z and 15Z. All of
this will work together to make a rather tricky low temperature
forecast tonight as any 1-3 hour period with calm winds and clear
skies will result in several degrees cooler for low temperatures,
but there is potential that clear skies and calm winds will not
align in time and space tonight. All told, looking at widespread
lows in the 6-11 degree range with wind chills around 0 or even
slightly colder. High clouds will then move across the area,
especially in northern KS, through the day tomorrow which should
limit daytime heating and keep highs held generally in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Temporary warming trend Friday night into Saturday as a lee sfc
trough develops over eastern CO with a lead mid level shortwave
trough ejecting over the northern plains Saturday afternoon.
Southerly winds increase between 15 and 20 mph, advecting warmer air
into northeast Kansas. Believe with plenty of mixing in the low
levels despite the cloud cover temps should be able to reach the
lower 40s for high temperatures.

Latest guidance for the Sunday storm system is beginning to show a
bit more consistency with the exception of the NAM model being
colder and further south with the sfc low. Expect the aforementioned
sfc trough to lift across the panhandles before lifting northeast
towards southern and eastern Kansas. Most of the better forcing lies
north of the warm front Sunday afternoon towards Iowa, however could
see a light wintry mix develop over northern and far eastern
portions of the area. Forecast soundings show primarily rain and
snow with the slight possibility for light freezing rain as very
warm h85 temps spread into the cwa during the afternoon. At this
time, little to no accumulations are expected as highs Sunday range
from the lower to upper 30s. System clears the area Sunday night as
another developing sfc low to our west backs sfc winds to the south
once again Monday. This will warm up temps back into the upper 30s
and lower 40s before the next stronger cold front arrives Tuesday
night and Wednesday. There is a slight chance for light snow along
the boundary however believe the excess dry air should evaporate
much of it. Highs from Tuesday onward are generally in the upper 20s
to lower 30s with lows falling to the teens, possibly single digits.|

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Northwest winds will
become light after sunset and remain light but out of the south
after sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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