Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 042321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. Sustained winds will increase to around 15 knots
by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg


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