Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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071
FXUS63 KTOP 061128
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Generally quiet sensible weather conditions expected for today and
tonight. Could see some light patchy ground fog near water and in
low spots early this morning, but widespread conditions not
expected. Temperatures rise from near 50 this morning quickly into
the 70s and low 80s as warmer temperatures aloft continue to move in
from the west and mix down into the afternoon. Could see some wind
gusts 25-30 mph out in central Kansas, decreasing to the east. Upper
ridge continues to approach our area from the west into the
overnight hours, with warm overnight lows expected to stay in the
50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

On Saturday a mid level trough will dig over the Great Lakes region,
which will drag a front into the forecast area. The models have been
inconsistent on exactly where this front will end up by the evening.
The consensus appears to be somewhere along and near the NE/KS state
line. The models have also showed less moisture reaching the area
and therefore have backed off on developing storms. The better
moisture may remain along and north of the front and further into
western KS. There still appears to be a marginal risk for a strong
storm capable of large hail and damaging wind mainly in far northern
KS. Showers and storms are more likely to develop in northwest KS
and move eastward towards the forecast area after dark. Steep mid
level lapse rates move overhead, but again the moisture appears
rather limited to support much activity.

On Sunday the mid level system begins to eject from the Rockies
while several waves rotate around the parent low pressure. The warm
front will likely lift northward during the day placing most of the
area within the warm sector. One of these waves may try to initiate
elevated showers during the day. So the instability will definitely
be in question by Sunday afternoon by the time surface based
convection is possible. The wave will most likely kick off storms in
western KS along the dryline that will move eastward into eastern KS
Sunday night. The shear and instability may be able to support some
severe storms overnight in the form of wind and hail. This will also
be the best chance for widespread heavy rainfall. The mid level low
pressure lifts northeastward on Monday pushing the dry line into
eastern KS. The instability will be high, while the deep layer shear
remains marginal. Strong to severe storms will still be possible
Monday afternoon across far eastern KS during the afternoon and
evening. The kicker wave then approaches the plains Tuesday night
into Wednesday, which brings more chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds gain some gusts
this afternoon but diminish again toward evening hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67



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