


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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026 FXUS63 KTOP 260525 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Marginal severe weather risk, with a few storms capable of damaging winds and small hail, as well as locally heavy rain. - Staying seasonably warm through the weekend with highs in the low 90s. Mostly dry with just minor (20-40%) shower/storm chances. - Cold front Sunday night brings higher thunderstorm chances (40- 70%) and knocks highs back into the 80s for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Warm but quiet conditions are in place this afternoon, as the strong upper ridge over the Ohio Valley remains in control. With dewpoints around 70 and temperatures in the low 90s, heat indices are once again approaching 100. By tomorrow, the upper ridge will deamplify some as a weak trough over the Rockies lifts northeast over the Plains. This will push a weak cold front into northeast Kansas. High confidence that storms will develop along this front by mid/late Thursday afternoon, expanding east and southeast through the evening. The environment is a typical one for late June, with weak shear, moderate instability, and high precipitable water. So expecting a typical summer-time severe weather threat similar to what we`ve seen the past couple days. Initial pulse and multi- cell storms may produce a brief 1" or less hail threat, before transitioning to more of damaging wind threat as storms congeal and grow upscale. Given the high precipitable water and slow storm motions, some local heavy rain and flood risk will occur again, where isolated places could see 2-4" of rain. Most places though will receive around or below 1" of beneficial rain. As instability weakens with loss of heating and convective overturning, the severe threat will wane by mid-evening, with the heavy rain threat ending by around midnight. The front largely washes out by Friday, as the main jet stream becomes more zonal and stays largely to our north. So little in the way of relief from the heat is expected through Sunday. Highs stay in the low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices nearing 100. No obvious signals for precipitation, but with a moist and uncapped airmass some isolated showers still seem possible each day. Higher rain chances do arrive Sunday night as a trough amplifies over the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front across the area. This will bring some minor relief to the heat and humidity for the first half of next week. Highs stay more in the mid/upper 80s, with dewpoints generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Any clouds working into the area from overnight convection to the west expected to remain around mid-levels. Could see a few low- level clouds develop during the day under the capping inversion. Once the cap breaks into the latter part of the afternoon, do expect storms to develop along a weak cold frontal boundary. Could see a few hour window for storms across the terminals as storms propagate from west to east through the area. Timing will likely need adjustments but focus for storms to develop and impact the terminals should be focused into the late afternoon and early evening timeframe. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Drake