Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180506

1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.


...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog has quickly developed at TOP/FOE, with more gradual vis
restrictions building into MHK. Expect the LIFR vis to be dominant
through 14Z at TOP/FOE, although it may fluctuate between 06Z and
09Z as mid clouds move overhead. These clouds should clear out
though with the fog persisting. MHK will be more heavily
influenced by the mid cloud cover, and do not expect such low vis
at MHK for this reason...although a period of IFR seems likely
around sunrise. Vis will improve after 14Z but expect broken
ceilings to remain through much of the morning, with cigs rising
from IFR to MVFR before scattering out.




SHORT TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.