Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 111142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Northwest upper level flow continues again today with another
clipper system forecast to move from the far northern Plains toward
northern Missouri by late this evening. In the meantime, the
Wednesday night cold front has pushed much colder air into the local
area, and post-frontal stratus has been steadily trying to build
south into the area. Clouds should continue to build south over the
next several hours and will probably cover much of the forecast area
at some point in the day. The main question in the forecast is just
how long these clouds will last...assuming that they do eventually
spread south over the whole area. The deck is not particularly thick
but there should not be much mixing today either given light winds
and minimal heating. Most guidance suggests an early afternoon
scattering from southwest to northeast and this seems reasonable
although recent memory of very persistent low stratus in similar
days leaves some concern for clouds to last longer. As it stands,
have forecast fairly cool with the warmer temperatures to the
southwest where there should be more potential for sunshine and also
a slightly warmer airmass. Another cold front comes through with the
aforementioned clipper system late evening through early morning.
Any precip should be well east of the area and while there will be
cold advection, the wind shift to stronger north winds and increased
mixing overnight may actually keep low temperatures a bit warmer
than otherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Upper ridge will approach the region from the west causing a surface
high pressure to move across the northern US. There is some warm
advection precipitation on the western periphery of this surface
high, but it should stay north of the forecast area. Highs on Friday
should range from the low 30s in northeast KS to the low 40s in
central KS. This surface high is associated with an arctic air mass
causing temperatures to fall Friday night and stick around through
Saturday. Most locations will not reach freezing on Saturday, but it
should remain dry. On Sunday a shortwave trough in the northwest
flow aloft will track over the plains. The main issue will be the
relatively dry air in place near the surface that will not have time
to recover before the lift arrives. This means that a majority of
the precipitation will likely not even reach the ground. The best
chances for anything measurable precipitation will be far eastern KS
mainly in the morning. Soundings indicate that ice may be present in
the cloud, a warm nose may be possible, and there is a decent
refreeze layer in the lower levels. Temperatures look to be below
freezing in the morning supporting snow and or sleet, but warming
during the day to maybe cause a change over to rain. As of now it
appears amounts if any would be light. The precipitation looks to
exit the region Sunday afternoon. More energy in the northwest flow
will bring another shot of light precipitation Monday morning.
Temperatures aloft and at the surface seem warm enough to support
rain, but model consensus gives lows in the upper 20s. Therefore
have mentioned snow although it is probably unlikely. Amounts again
are pretty light if these model solutions are correct. A warming
trend will begin going into mid week as the main upper jet
retreats northward. The quasizonal flow will still allow for waves
to traverse the northern US bring shots of cooler air, but not
arctic.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Stratus cloud deck is slowly moving south across northern KS, and
has already build over MHK with expectation to impact TOP/FOE by
around 13Z. Edge of the cloud deck is slightly higher than areas
farther in, and all 3 sites can expect borderline IFR conditions
for the next few hours, but will probably be mainly MVFR. Ceilings
are expected to scatter out in the 18-21Z time frame. A cold front
impacts TAF sites in the 02-04Z time frame with gusty NW winds and
a SCT to perhaps BKN MVFR clouds developing.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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