Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Mid/upper low pressure currently spinning over southwest MO. Weak
lift associated with the trowal and low pressure is supporting
isolated to scattered showers across eastern MO. These showers
should linger through the early evening hours as the low lifts
northeastward. Wrap around low level moisture in the form of stratus
is forecasted to remain in place overnight. The main concern tonight
will be the possibility of fog. The clouds should limit the
radiational cooling, but winds will be relatively light as a ridge
of high pressure positions over central and southeast KS. The most
likely location for fog will be on the western periphery of the
stratus, which could be across portions of central KS. Some guidance
is suggesting that fog will build down from the very low stratus
tonight. As of now the fog widespread dense fog is not likely, but
it may be possible at some locations especially given the increased
surface moisture from the recent rainfall. The forecast area
remains dry tomorrow as a quick ridge aloft tracks over the central
plains and the next system lifts out over the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The long term forecast has been quite consistent over recent days
and model runs, and continues to indicate a succession of short
wave energy moving across the Great Plains. The foci of this
forecast issuance are a Sunday night/Monday precipitation event,
and another longer duration Wed night through Thursday night
precipitation event. Temperatures throughout the long term will be
fairly stable as the local area will experience periods of warm
and cold advection but these periods will also be muted by an
abundance of cloud cover as they occur. The end result is an
extended forecast with highs always in the upper 50s to middle 60s
and lows generally in the low to mid 40s...with some greater
variation possible in the absence of cloud cover.

On Sunday evening, an impressive and compact short wave trough
will track its center across the southern half of Kansas. A subtle
lead wave is indicated by all model guidance to bring a sharp
increase in vertical motion via isentropic upslope flow and even a
bit of mid level frontogenesis from south central into northeast
Kansas by Sunday evening. Should see a band of rain develop and
track north across much of the forecast area, then pivot over the
forecast area and slowly progress east with the primary vort max.
There will also be a secondary region of strong vertical motion
immediately in advance of the primary vort max which should
enhance precipitation coverage and intensity into east central
Kansas. This will all fall in the form of rain but instability is
likely to be limited and thunderstorms are unlikely. Heavy
rainfall will be possible though especially with the pivoting
segment of rainfall. Precipitation should end by Monday afternoon
with a dry period expected through Tuesday evening.

Late Tuesday evening into the overnight, a deep upper trough will
close off to the southwest, pulling an impressive amount of
moisture north into Kansas as it gradually tracks over the
southern plains. The local forecast area will once again remian in
the northern sector of this storm system, but do see some
potential for a bit of elevated instability to work into east
central KS with the impressive moisture advection. The prolonged
duration of this system in conjunction with the available moisture
and seemingly likely presence of another relatively persistent
lifting mechanism north of the low points to strong potential for
widespread rainfall with a chance of locally heavy rainfall
amounts. The bulk of model guidance pushes this storm system east
by early Friday, and have gone with a dry forecast for the
remainder of Friday and Saturday at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Models show the wrap around moisture hanging in through the
morning. So IFR CIGS are likely to persist. The main concern is
whether the stratus will lower to the ground and restrict VSBY as
a weak ridge axis causes winds to become light. Forecast soundings
maintain some dry air at the surface, so have favored more stratus
than fog.




SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.