Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 302325
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
Persistent stratus cloud deck has been slowly eroding from the
northwest today, but it appears unlikely that clouds will not
dissipate much east of the Highway 81 corridor by this evening.
There have also been a few stray sprinkles moving south across
northeast KS as well...and these should continue slowly drifting
south through sunset. With the clouds in place, afternoon highs will
struggle into the lower 60s. Despite the cool day, the clouds will
also keep the overnight hours a bit warmer despite incoming surface
high pressure...and lows should range from the lower 50s east to the
middle 40s in north central KS where more clearing is expected. See
some minor potential for fog in areas that experience clearing, but
north central KS is having a fair amount of dry advection through
the evening... mitigating the fog potential. If holes open in the
cloud deck farther east, patchy dense fog could develop but this is
contingent on any clearing and a light northerly breeze should help
mitigate that potential a bit as well. Clouds should scatter out
across the entire forecast area by mid morning on Sunday. No
precipitation is expected, winds will be generally less than 10 mph,
and should see a good amount of sun. This will make for a pleasant
Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
Sunday Night to Tuesday...
Tomorrow night the moisture begins to advect northward over the high
plains. During this time the flow aloft remains out of the northwest
as the upper ridge builds over the southern Rockies. There is a
slight chance precip develops in western KS/NE and progresses
eastward into central KS during the early Monday morning hours.
There is a decent amount of dry air in place that be will rather
difficult to overcome, so do not have a lot of confidence in those
chances. Late Monday the models are hinting at a shortwave rounding
the northern periphery of the upper ridge. This feature is forecast
to track over western NE during the evening hours where upslope flow
and better moisture should support thunderstorm development. As of
now there are not many signs that suggest this complex really holds
together into central KS, unless the wave happen to track further
Tuesday Night to Saturday...
NE Kansas stays on the edge of an upper-level ridge for the period,
as a prominent upper-level low remains situated over the SE CONUS.
Flow to the north is unsettled with multiple shortwaves moving
through bringing chances/slight chances for thunderstorms for NE
Kansas from Tuesday night to Saturday. Models indicate that the bulk
of precipitation will stay north of our area, with our best chances
for heavier precipitation Friday night and Saturday. While there is
quite a bit of instability every day, shear remains unimpressive for
the most part. The GFS indicates that Thursday night would have the
best chances for any stronger storms as 0-6km shear reaches up to
30kts. Temperatures range from the lower to mid-80s for the period
with lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015
For the 00z TAFs, it`s a challenging forecast as models are not in
very good agreement with ceilings through the evening and overnight
hours. Satellite imagery late this afternoon shows cloud cover
breaking up slightly, allowing the MVFR cigs to rise a bit. However,
a handful of model guidance suggests that cigs will drop once
again tonight with low-end MVFR cigs and possibly even some IFR cigs
for a few hours overnight into Sunday morning before lifting and
scattering out to VFR conditions sometime late morning/early
afternoon. As surface high pressure moves into the region, winds
will shift from north to east through the day on Sunday.