Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180433

1133 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

West to northwest flow aloft continued to usher in high pressure
across the northern and central plains states today.  High
temperatures have reached into the 60s to near 70 under mostly sunny

Pattern continues with high pressure continuing to move southward
overnight. Mostly clear skies should allow lows to drop into the
upper 30s to near 40 across the area.  As winds slowly turn from
light north around to light southeast by the end of the day
Saturday, end result should be temperatures very close to today`s
numbers, perhaps just a degree or two cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

General weak and dry air dominate the majority of the extended
period with near or just above normal temperatures in the forecast.
Quiet second half of the weekend expected with light winds and
temperatures warming to near 70 degrees as weak warm advection
commences. An upper ridge gradually builds to our west as a shortwave
trough progresses southeast over the Great Lakes region. Questions
still remain on the availability of moisture present as the trough axis
stretches into northeast KS Sunday evening. Latest GFS guidance
continues to be the most poignant of increased upper level ascent
and saturation in the column Sunday evening. 12Z ECMWF is beginning
to trend on this feature with higher probabilities of developing precip
over southeast KS into southern MO. Have inserted slight chances for
light showers over far east central KS until more consistency is
achieved between operational guidance. Although winds shift to the
north Monday, thermal ridge across western KS edges into north
central areas during the afternoon with enhanced mixing of 13C 850
mb temps. Therefore one final day of low to perhaps middle 70s is
expected before weak cool advection brings lows back into 40s and
highs in the upper 60s Tuesday.

Little changes made to remainder of the forecast period as upper
ridging prevails light winds and mild temperatures through Wednesday
evening. Weak shortwave trough enters Colorado Wednesday evening
before encountering the ridge progged just to our east. Trends in
extended guidance shunt this energy south of the area. There is a
slight chance light showers may impact far north central areas,
otherwise much of the precip shifts away from the CWA through


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period as
the region remains under the influence of surface high pressure. As
this surface high shifts eastward over the area, expect winds to
remain light and to veer from northwest to east this afternoon into
this evening.




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