Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 312017
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT Sun May 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A surface ridge of high pressure extended across the forecast area
this afternoon with the stratus field slow to dissipate amid weak
flow and minimal dry advection. The sun has come through
increasingly throughout the afternoon though, and temperatures have
warmed into the upper 60s with expectation to still reach the low
70s for most of the forecast area. Tonight, southerly return flow
will continue across the High Plains and central KS. A weak vort max
crossing northeast Nebraska should keep its influence north of the
local CWA but another weak vort max will track toward central KS
overnight. A zone of isentropic ascent will be enhanced ahead of
this short wave energy, with scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm expected to develop in central Nebraska and central KS
during the early morning hours and continuing through mid morning on
Monday. Instability will be generally weak so do not expect this
activity to be very strong, and it should wind down as vertical
motion decreases late Monday morning. The rest of Monday will be
pleasant with filtered sunshine, 10-15 mph southeast winds, and high
temperatures in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Monday Night to Wednesday...

SD into western NE, and convection should develop along this
boundary during the afternoon and evening. With slight movement in
the ridge placement through out the day the better moisture, steeper
lapse rates, and low level jet should all be focused further east
towards our area. This environment has a better potential of
supporting the afternoon convection through the overnight hours. The
models have been hinting at this scenario the past few runs, but
vary on the exact track and location. Therefore, it seems possible
for some sort of MCS to develop on or near the boundary before
moving southeastward towards eastern KS or western MO. Most likely
weakening in the process though especially given some drier air in
the lower levels. The GFS is the most aggressive with more QPF
across most of the area through out the day Wednesday. This could be
due to additional development along a remnant outflow as the
environment becomes more unstable. Although, the GFS forecast
soundings show a surface based cap still in place during the
afternoon hours, which the NAM completely removes. The lack of any
obvious focus feature has kept me from increasing pops.

Wednesday Night to Sunday...

Weak upper-level ridging stays over NE Kansas for the period while
several shortwaves make their way across this flow aloft.  The best
chances for any severe weather and heaviest rain would be on
Thursday afternoon/evening.  Shear between 35-45kts and over 2500
J/kg of CAPE would support the formation of supercells.  Will need
to keep an eye on next Saturday and Sunday as shear and instability
are decent these days supporting any storm development to be
stronger.  Temperatures stay pretty consistent throughout the period
with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Periods of scattered to broken clouds expected to continue this
afternoon at all sites. TOP/FOE will have cloud bases between 2500
and 3500 feet through around 19Z before lifting to more consistent
VFR. VFR is then likely through the remainder of the TAF although
with some potential for patchy fog after midnight. Have currently
left fog out of the forecast due to expected 10 kt winds just
above the surface and associated mixing. If fog develops, it would
likely be shallow.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Heller/Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





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