Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 312044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...53


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