Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221737

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Surface pressure will gradually tighten today as the lee side
trough deepens under southwest flow aloft. Besides gusty southerly
winds today the area should remain quiet with highs generally in
the 80s. Tonight a shortwave trough will lift out of the central
Rockies and over the plains. Ahead of that trough low level
moisture will be in place when the lift increases. Soundings show
near saturation around 850 mb, which may become uncapped between
midnight and sunrise mainly across central and east central KS.
The isentropic lift does not appear that strong, but the low level
jet does try to nose over that area towards sunrise. Therefore
there is a slight chance for isolated to scattered showers and
storms during that time frame. The models show most of this
activity will stay south of the before 12z, with the better
chances at locations along and near interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Have spread rain chances across the area through the day and into
the overnight hours as an upper wave lifts over eastern Kansas
through late Tuesday. Timing of the wave in the afternoon/evening
hours may leave enough instability and shear to bring a few strong
storms to the area, but better dynamics are to the north. Frontal
boundary behind the wave moves southward into Wednesday afternoon,
taking the track of Wednesday and Wednesday night rain chances
spreading southward and increasing with time. With a shortwave
over the Rockies through the afternoon and overnight hours
reinforcing lift over the front, could certainly see some locally
heavy rainfall, depending on how far south the front progresses
with time. Seems to be some agreement that the boundary shifts
southward on Thursday through Friday and will diminish rain
chances for that time period.

Return flow around the east coast high brings a plume of better
moisture back into the Central Plains on Saturday, as a series of
upper trofs traverse across the Northern states. Will keep higher
chances for rain as these interact over the central Plains over
the weekend. After a few days with highs in the 70s to low 80s,
high temperatures look to warm back into the middle 80s for the
weekend in WAA regime.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected through 11Z then transition to IFR and
MVFR cigs with low level moisture increase. Also expect mvfr vsbys
around 12Z with BR lasting through 15Z or 16Z mainly at TOP and
FOE terminals. Expect MHK terminal to remain vfr through the
period. South winds around 14kts with gusts to near 21kts will
decrease to around 10 kts after 23Z. Winds increase again by 15Z
Tuesday to 10-12 kts.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Sanders
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