666
FXUS63 KTOP 080725
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
225 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning storms could have locally strong wind gusts.

- Storms could redevelop (30% Chance) this afternoon across east
  central Kansas with a risk for strong wind gusts.

- Hot and humid weather is expected to stick around through the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

07Z water vapor imagery showed the upper level ridge still over
MN and AZ with northwest flow over the central plains. A MCS
was moving along the MO river valley within this flow. Surface
obs showed a warm and moist airmass ahead of the MCS and with
some modest convergence along the outflow boundary the
convection is probably going to progress further into the
forecast area than the HRRR shows. Some of the other CAMs (ARW
and FV3) seem to be handling this better. But there is
increasing convective inhibition over north central and east
central KS. So the expectation is for the storms to gradually
weaken with time. Still there may be a locally strong to
damaging wind gust through the early morning hours.

It is unclear how far south the effective boundary from this MCS
will travel with some CAMs pushing through the entire forecast area
and others showing development across the southern half in the
afternoon. Based on the expectation for the storms to weaken, think
some king of boundary could set up across east central KS. With a
warm and humid airmass expected to remain in place along any
boundary, there would be a chance for redevelopment and have held
onto some chance POPs across the southern half of the forecast area
through the late afternoon.

The 00Z NAM brings another vort max across the area late tonight and
Wednesday. The compact and amplified nature of the wave looks to be
a result of convective feedback and there is not much support from
the other models for this. So have continued with a dry forecast
through Wednesday. Temps are forecast to trend warmer into Thursday
as the thermal ridge build across the high plains and into central
KS. A generally westerly to northwesterly pattern is progged to set
up through the weekend. Models show a better shortwave trough
passing mainly north of the area on Friday which looks to bring a
boundary into the area. Some better chances for showers and storms
are associated with this feature. Aside from this synoptic scale
feature, precip chances will be driven primarily by mesoscale
processes which have very low predictability beyond 24 or 48 hours.
So the forecast has some low end POPs in the forecast for Sunday and
Monday. There looks to be a brief break from the heat on Saturday
with weak surface ridging forecast to move over the area. Until then
highs look to remain in the lower and middle 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An MCS continues to move along the MO river valley and it is
still unclear if TS will reach TOP and FOE. A linear
extrapolation would have them in the terminals around 08Z. But
meso analysis and RAP progs show increasing inhibition ahead of
the line. Based on CAMs showing the MCS weakening and the RAP
CIN forecast, I may just go with a VCSH for a couple hours and
reevaluate the progress of the MCS. Based on the current track,
MHK looks to remain west of the convection. It is unclear
whether storms will redevelop this afternoon and objective MOS
shows the probability is less than 50%. So may hold off on
adding anything else to the forecast until the morning stuff
runs it`s course.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters