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000
FXUS63 KTOP 232337
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

As of 19z, a weak cold front was positioned from central OK into
northeastern AR. Upper level ridging continues to organized across
the Rockies. The upper level shortwave that helped span
thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening continues to progress
eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. WV reveals mid level dry
air advecting across the CWA this afternoon. Weak dry air advection
at the surface continues to usher in mid and upper 60 degree Td`s
into the western half of the CWA. This trend should continue into
the overnight hours. Td`s in the eastern half of the CWA remain in
the low to middle 70s, resulting in heat index values approaching
100.

Surface high pressure will build southward during the overnight
hours, briefly ushering in 60 degree Td`s area wide. WAA will return
Monday morning across the western half of the area, as the high
pressure shunts eastward, allowing southeasterly winds to return. As
a result, upper 60 to near 70 degree Td`s will return to the area.
Plentiful sunshine and deep BL mixing will allow high temperatures
to reach the upper 90s across central KS Monday afternoon. The
northeastern counties will top out near 90 Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

By Monday Night, a broad mid-level ridge will remain anchored across
much of the CONUS, with the CWA wedged between surface high pressure
to the east and surface low pressure to the west.  Tuesday into
Wednesday a mid-level trough will skim eastward across the Dakotas
toward the Great Lakes region, which will help to push the area of
surface low pressure eastward into Kansas.  With surface winds
shifting back to the south, expect a moderating trend in
temperatures once again mid-week with highs in the mid/upper 90s and
heat indices rising into the low/mid 100s. The highest heat indices
are expected on Wednesday, and a Heat Advisory may need to be
considered for the afternoon hours.  While a few isolated showers
and storms may be possible across north central Kansas Tuesday
afternoon and evening due to a couple of weak embedded waves within
the ridge axis, better chances for precipitation are expected during
the Wednesday through Friday time frame.  With surface low pressure
advancing eastward into Kansas mid-week, models show an associated
cold front extending into north central and far northeast Kansas on
Wednesday.  This boundary will slowly slide southeastward across the
CWA Wednesday night through Thursday, resulting in the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the forecast
area.  Despite the cold front exiting the CWA by Thursday night,
models show some post-frontal precipitation developing across
central and east central KS.  While there is still model uncertainty
in how long this post-frontal precipitation will persist across the
area, it may continue into Friday morning.  Surface high pressure
will advance into the region behind the exiting area of low
pressure, so expect dry conditions late Friday through the weekend.
This late-week frontal passage will finally bring some relief to
this extended period of heat and humidity.  High temperatures will
begin to drop into the 80s on Thursday behind the frontal passage,
with highs expected to stay in the mid/upper 80s through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Northeast winds
slowly become southeast below 12kts by late in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67