Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 312332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Water vapor imagery centers an expansive mid level ridge across
the southern and central plains, in between the broad
southwesterly flow to the northwest, and the tropical moisture
remnants to the southeast. At the surface this evening, weak upper
trough passes northeast over Nebraska. Not expecting any precip to
occur over the CWA, however sfc winds may stay up for a few hours
around 10 mph.

For tomorrow, expect similar conditions with perhaps a more
deeply mixed boundary layer as the trough axis over eastern CO
deepens east into central KS. South winds at 10 to 15 mph are
likely with gusts around 20 mph. Highs in turn are raised a few
degrees into the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Models continue to generate qpf over western portions of the
forecast area overnight Tuesday night and into the early morning
on Wednesday. Shortwave moves across Nebraska and trailing energy
may be just enough coupled with weak overnight isentropic lift to
generate some isolated activity, although shear is weak and
elevated CAPE is enough for thunder but not much else. Dry air in
the low levels could bring an isolated wind threat but chances are
low.

Elongated ridge builds overhead into the Great Lakes states into
the weekend, which keeps highs in the lower 90s with lows around
70 for much of the forecast. More uncertainty for Sunday into
Monday as latest EC is stronger and slower with the incoming
shortwave over the Pacific NW and keeps the warm air overhead
longer, while GFS is more progressive with some of the energy
across the Canadian border and brings a front through faster on
Monday. Most of the GFS ensembles still point to this solution
and will keep chance for precip for Sunday into Monday. Heat could
hold out into Sunday but with this track Monday could end up
cooler with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Thinking is winds remain strong enough to inhibit both lower
visibility from formation of mist, due to the moist boundary
layer still in place, and also LLWS. LLWS is too low confidence
to insert in the forecast at this time due to the expectation that
winds don`t fully decouple. Will re-evaluate LLWS potential at the
06z TAF forecast time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake


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