Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 042245
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
445 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 440 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Do expect winds to
veer to the south/southeast through time and high and mid clouds
to build in over the terminals by the last half of the forecast
period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake



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