Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 162330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Water vapor imagery showing shortwave trough continuing to pivot
eastward across northeast MO with drier wrapping into the county
warning area (cwa) in its wake. This will allow for a gradual
clearing of the lower clouds from southwest to northeast across the
cwa into the evening. At the same time...a cold front continues to
make slow southeastward progress across the far southeast corner of
the cwa in the Garnett and Burlington areas. A developing line of cu
along this front on satellite supports the possibility of an
isolated shower/thunderstorm developing across the far southeast
corner of the cwa through the remainder of the afternoon...although
do not expect any precip in the cwa beyond 7 pm. Will therefore go
dry with the fcst starting tonight. However...with the clearing
skies...light winds/ridge axis building through the center of the
cwa through the night...patchy/areas of fog are a concern and have
added to the grids...generally in the 2 am to 10 am timeframe.
Following lows tonight in the middle to upper 60s...should see high
temps Sunday rebound back into the middle 80s far northeast corner
to the lower 90s from north central into the southern portions of
east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Sunday night and Monday an upper trough is forecast to move across
the Northern and Central Plains. A warm front is expected to move
northeast into north central Kansas by Monday morning. Expect
nocturnal thunderstorms to develop after midnight Sunday night with
precipitation continuing through the morning hours on Monday.
Northeast Kansas will be on the southern end of trough as it moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday then into the Great
Lakes Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be again possible
Monday night across much of the area, and mainly across parts of
east central Kansas on Tuesday. Warm advection/isentropic lift over
the frontal boundary Tuesday night will bring another round of
thunderstorms especially to areas across the north where locally
heavy rainfall will be possible.

Wednesday night through Saturday will see above normal temperatures
as an upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. while a
trough deepens over the western states. Have continued the trend for
some low end precipitation, mainly nocturnal, with minor waves
moving through the southwest flow. Temperatures should range in the
90s for highs and 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR conditions through first half of the evening as model
soundings still indicating decent potential for ground fog to develop
aft 08Z with MVFR visibilities falling to IFR around 11Z.
Visibilities at KMHK and KTOP may fall near or just below 1 mile
between 11Z and 14Z before quickly lifting mid morning Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen






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