Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

07Z water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave moving through the
middle MO river valley with a general anticyclonic pattern over the
southwestern U.S. A couple better defined waves were noted within
the mean westerlies from British Columbia to the Great Lakes. At the
surface, a meso-high pressure system was noted over southeast KS
associated with the ongoing convection. The synoptic pattern shows
high pressure to the northwest over the northern high plains.

For today the HRRR and RAP continue to show scattered showers and
storms persisting across east central KS into the mid morning hours.
Profiler data does not show much of a low level jet, but isentropic
surfaces from the RAP do have some upglide continuing into the
morning. Storms may also be aided by local convergence enhanced from
the meso-high. So will keep some small POPs through mid morning
across east central KS. Once the morning activity diminishes, think
precip chances will be less than 20 percent for the rest of the day.
Think that general subsidence behind the subtle wave passing through
the MO river valley now could dissuade storms. Additionally the
synoptic boundary that was over the area yesterday should set up to
the south of the area with low level convergence along and south of
the OK state line. As for temps, models show the thermal ridge has
broken down, but there is not a lot of cold air advection to speak
of. Obs immediately upstream also show a fair amount of low level
moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. So think air
temps will be cooler than the last several days, but the humidity
could remain high enough to generate heat indices around 100 for
parts of northeast and east central KS. Highs are forecast to be in
the middle 90s. With skies clearing out and winds remaining light,
lows tonight should fall back into the mid and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monday through Wednesday periods feature slowly rising upper heights
with main upper jet still over the northern states. South to
southwest low level flow helps bring highs back up into the mid to
upper 90s for much of the area with some triple digits possible by
Wednesday as the next system to the north brings a cold front into
the area. Dewpoints will rise at least somewhat as well, with help
from  moist ground in many areas from Saturday night`s rain, and
heat indicies near Advisory level are possible for much of the area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation chances look fairly low Monday
into Tuesday night, but did keep a small chance in mainly eastern
areas Tuesday afternoon with good agreement in good moisture in the
700mb-800mb layer and weak warm air advection developing.
Aforementioned front sags south through the area, likely in the
Wednesday night into Thursday evening periods with precip chances
along and behind it. Temps returning to near normal level Thursday
into Saturday as surface high pressure builds south into the mid-
Mississippi Valley.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
slowly veer to an easterly direction, although remaining below 10




SHORT TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Baerg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.