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000
FXUS63 KTOP 191755
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

An upper level ridge across western NM and southeast UT will
gradually build east into the southern high plains. Weak
northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the southern plains.
The deepest moist axis will extend from western TX, northward
across western KS into western NE. Upslope flow will cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop across eastern CO, western KS
and western NE during the late afternoon and evening hours. These
storms will remain well west and northwest of the CWA through the
night.

Late tonight the 850mb winds will veer to the southwest and deeper
moisture will advect northeast across the western counties of the
CWA into south central and eastern NE. All the operational forecast
models show the stronger isentropic lift and QPF remaining north of
the CWA across central and eastern NE between the 9Z-12Z SUN period.

Highs Today will reach into the mid 80s with overnight lows in the
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Upper ridge continues to be expected to strengthen over the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains from late this weekend into the middle of
next week. South winds will dominate the surface much of the first
few days, with south to southwest flow into the lower few thousand
feet combining to bring a warmer and more humid airmass into the
area. Latest specifics support going forecast of temps Sunday rising
substantially from today given 850mb temps surging up around 7C and
further rises Monday. Apparent temps rise in kind, again looking to
top out around heat advisory levels Monday and Tuesday.

As for precipitation, there remains at least minor concerns for
mainly overnight into post-sunrise elevated thunderstorms Sunday
night into early Tuesday as a weak to moderate low level jet
develops each night. Model soundings continue to show little
saturation able to occur however. Sunday night appears to be the
better isentropic lift setup, with still some suggestions of a weak
upper wave Monday night. Will keep any mention of precip out of
Sunday night and Monday at this point with isolated coverage at best
anticipated, but maintain continuity of small PoPs Monday night
where more widespread lift and increased moisture exist. Somewhat
stronger forcing and instability favor northern locations throughout
these periods.

There continues to be decent agreement with an upper wave traveling
over the ridge and bringing a cold front through the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night, but perhaps a bit slower than earlier runs. The
ECMWF is much sharper with this wave for a more robust precipitation
event, while the GFS keeps the wave weaker and farther east, but
still supports decent precipitation chances. Veering though not
very strong winds through the troposphere and plenty of instability
would bring at least minor severe weather potential for the late
afternoon and evening. Somewhat cooler temps behind this front for
Wednesday and Thursday, but upper ridge looks to rebuild by Friday
for at least a brief warming trend again. As the warm front
approaches Thursday night, there is some potential for more
thunderstorms in the north and east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Slightly
stronger winds overnight should inhibit any fog development.
Winds will become gusty tomorrow beginning late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders