


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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221 FXUS63 KTOP 270515 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1215 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. A few instances of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall possible, but severe weather potential is low overall. - Warm and humid through Sunday. Sunday night cold front brings less humid and slightly cooler weather for next week. - Best rain and storm chances (50-70%) Sunday night with the cold front, otherwise small (10-30%) pop-up storm chances most afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Surface observations this afternoon depict a weak area of low pressure across eastern Nebraska, with a weakening cold front extending southwest into central Kansas. Satellite observations are showing several bands of increasingly agitated cumulus ahead of and parallel to the front. Given a moist and mostly uncapped airmass, continued heating over the next hour or two should allow scattered thunderstorms to develop. Forcing does remain quite weak though, keeping confidence on the low end with regard to exact timing and coverage of convection. Regardless, the environment continues to be a very typical summer-time setup. Effective shear is weak, at less than 15 kts, instability is moderate (2000-2500 J/kg), and moisture content is high (PWAT 1.8-2.0"). Damaging winds with gusts up to around 60 mph will be the main severe hazard, though some small hail could occur with initial updrafts. Otherwise, as storms grow upscale, there could be some isolated areas that pick up a quick few inches of rain with a low-end flash flood risk. Generally though, the more scattered nature of convection and a slow but steady eastward progression will keep accumulations for most places around or below one inch. Some places in north-central KS likely won`t see anything. At any rate, any heavier storms will tend to clear east- central KS by late evening, though a few weaker showers may linger overnight. Whatever weak boundary that still exists by tomorrow will lift back north of the area as a broad zonal jet stream reestablishes itself over the Northern Plains. This will keep warm and humid conditions in place through the weekend. Highs climb into the 90s, lows stay in the 70s, with heat indices approaching 100. Given a continued moist airmass with only very weak CIN, can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm across much of the weekend. However without any front or upper shortwave to encourage ascent, most places will remain dry through Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening and overnight, a front will push southeast across the area as an upper trough begins to amplify over the Great Lakes. This will increase shower/storm chances area-wide. Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air will work in, with dewpoints dropping into the low/mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures look to be near seasonal averages, in the upper 80s, with low temperatures in the mid 60s slightly below average. Precipitation chances look lower into mid-week behind the front, though in a typical summer pattern like this it is difficult to discount PoPs altogether this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A few mid clouds remain as showers exit east of the terminals early in the period. Winds back to the south early this morning and remain southerly through the day but remain generally less than 10kts. Could see a few mid to late afternoon showers or a brief thunderstorm develop with the heating of the day. Confidence in this scenario is too low to mention at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Drake