Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250445
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

REGIONAL ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MUCH OF KS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE, WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS CO INTO NE.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT NORTH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS, EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HEAT INDICES ARE MAXING OUT BETWEEN 110 AND
115 DEGREES.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION APPEARS TO
HAVE WASHED OUT OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL KS WITH VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
ACCAS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS
MORNING WERE IN THE UPPER 90S WHICH LEAVES SOME CONCERN FOR ISO
STORMS TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER THERE IS NO REAL STRONG FORCING IN PLACE
TO KICKOFF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW FOR STORMS IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS HOLDING OFF ISO/SCATTERED CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER THE 6 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
25 KTS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL CAUSE ANY STORM THAT
FORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

ON SATURDAY, LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THE LLJ WANES AND TEMPORARY CLEARING
OCCURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM FROM
THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON TRANSLATE TO HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100 TO 105 RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXISTENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP LEAD TO HOLDING OFF HEADLINES
FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CLEARING OCCURS AND PEAK HEATING IS MAXIMIZED, HIGH
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR MAY RESULT IN STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LOWER RISK FOR
LARGER HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AS LLJ VEERS ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THE
CONVECTION...DIMINISHING IN TIME WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND
HAVE FORECAST WORDED AS SUCH. HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MOVE EAST WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT POTENTIAL...BUT
PATTERN WOULD INDICATE CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE AND A
BOOST BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
LOWER DEWPOINTS ALSO MIX EASTWARD AND ARE FORECAST IN UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S...AND SUSPECT CURRENT FORECAST IS EVEN A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
HEAT INDICES ARE JUST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT COULD BE BELOW
DEPENDING ON HOW MESOSCALE AND MIXING PAN OUT. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND AIDS IN
REAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. COULD GET CLIPPED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH A FEW STORMS BUT OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY AS AGAIN LOWER DEWPOINTS MIX OUT. FORECAST IS
NEAR CRITERIA AGAIN...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY IF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS MAKE IT FARTHER EAST.

AS NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE KS/NE
BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS PARKS THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WOULD LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOME RELIEF FINALLY IN STORE IN THE
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS STRONG NORTHERN TROF MOVES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AND DIMINISH. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND RISE TO MIDDLE UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THIS CURRENT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONCERN WITH DISCREPANCY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE IN MODELS
AND HAVE LEFT TSRA OUT FOR NOW, BUT LATE IN THE PERIOD CHANCES
FOR TSRA INCREASE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53


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