Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 102350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

As of 20Z Friday afternoon, a low amplitude, mid-level trough was
traversing the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad anticyclone
was centered over Lake Michigan. Low level stratus rooted between
H85 and H7 continues to lift northeast across the area. The back
edge of the stratus stretches from near Concordia to Emporia to
Ottawa. Given the lack of surface heating, temperatures have
remained in the 30s across northern KS to the middle 40s in the
southern counties. On the western periphery of the surface high, low-
level moisture has began to stream northward. A strengthening LLJ
will assist in moisture transport and resultant stratus plume
overnight. Given the WAA overnight, low temperatures will remain in
the 30s. Surface cyclogenesis will take place overnight across
southeastern CO. A surface cold front will encroach the area by dawn
Saturday morning. Areas of drizzle is expected along and ahead of
the front throughout the day Saturday, as isentropic lift within the
285K-295K layer overspreads the CWA. Southerly winds could gust
upward of 20-25 mph ahead of the cold front. Temperatures are
expected to be warmer Saturday afternoon with highs ranging from the
middle 40s in far northeast KS to the low 50s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Weak lift aloft and in the vicinity of the elevated front may be
able to force scattered showers Saturday night across the area
before the front pushes southeast and high pressure builds into
the area on Sunday. This should at least scour out moisture and
allow the sun to return and in turn helping highs reach around 50
or lower 50s on Sunday.

Modified moisture return will begin on Tues with the next chance
for precip expected Tues into Weds as another weak wave races
across the region in the fast mainly zonal flow aloft. EC and GFS
both show elevated instability around later Tues into Tues night
so will keep mention of tsra in the forecast during that time

The strongest upper system and associated strong cold front
would appear to impact the area later Thursday per GFS or later
Fri according to the EC. Moisture return featuring a broad area of
mid 50s to lower 60s dewpoints may be present near or southeast
of the CWA later Friday according to the EC. If this system slows
down it may be something worth watching over the course of the
next week for better rain and t-storm chcs.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected area-wide prior to 06Z, with MVFR to
IFR stratus spreading from west to east over the course of the
morning. CIGS will fall to IFR levels and possibly lower by the
afternoon. Drizzle may also result in lowered VSBYs during the
day. Winds will be from the SE to S at 5 to 15 kts.




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