Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Early this morning, a weak surface trough was located from Minnesota
extending into western Kansas.  Clear skies and light southerly
winds have prevailed, with winds expected to increase later this
morning ahead of this surface feature.  By this afternoon, Gulf
moisture will increase dewpoints ahead of the boundary into the mid
to lower 70s.  850 temperatures will rise to near 25C, bringing
surface temperatures near 90 degrees.  These temperatures, combined
with dewpoints, will allow heat indicies to reach near 100 degrees
in east central Kansas.  A shortwave kicks this surface trough east
passing through northeast Kansas late in the afternoon, although no
precipitation is expected with this feature.  Weak high pressure
moves in behind the boundary, and light winds combined with mostly
clear skies will bring lows tonight into the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

An upper level trough will amplify across the western US during mid
week, then slowly lift northeast into the plains by the weekend,
bringing a a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night through Monday morning. Both the ECMWF and GFS are close in
the timing of the upper trough lifting northeast across the plains.
The ECMWF is more amplified than the GFS with the upper trough as it
lifts northeast across the plains late Saturday into Sunday night.

Wednesday through Thursday, a weaker subtropical trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western KS Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. This combined with monsoonal moisture at mid levels
may provide the western and northern counties of the CWA a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. The
shower and thunderstorm chances may remain just northwest of east
central KS.

Thursday night through Saturday. as the upper trough amplifies
across the southwest US a downstream upper ridge will amplify across
the eastern plains and lower and mid MS river valley. This should
keep eastern KS warm and dry.

Saturday night through Monday, the upper trough will move into the
plains and deep moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will
cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through
Saturday night across eastern KS. The showers and thunderstorms will
become more widespread as the stronger ascent spreads east across
eastern KS on Sunday. Due to the slow movement of the upper trough
we may see a prolong period of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Monday morning. There may be a severe weather and flash
flood potential late Saturday night through Sunday evening. A
surface cold front will move east into north central KS Sunday
afternoon and across the remainder of the CWA Sunday night, bringing
in a slightly cooler airmass. Monday the showers will end during the
morning as the upper trough sifts east into the mid MS river valley.

Expect a warm end to summer and a warm start to autumn as high
temperatures reach the mid 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.
Temperature will cool on Sunday due to cloud cover and periods of
rain and thunderstorms. Monday will be slightly cooler behind the
surface front. Highs will cool to the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

VFR prevails as a weak sfc trough passes terminals aft 00Z. Strong
southerly winds this afternoon become light and variable overnight
with some possible high clouds drifting south from MO. Depending
on the low level winds, fog and/or low stratus is possible,
at KTOP/KFOE. Will need to monitor aft 10Z and have placed MVFR
conditions through 14Z. Lower visibilities are expected north and
east of terminals.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Prieto



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