Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

506
FXUS63 KTOP 271123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Early this morning a decaying complex of thunderstorms was moving
across south central Nebraska. IR satellite was showing warming
temperatures as the showers and storms move southeast into less
stable environment. If the activity holds together it should move
into parts of north central Kansas before dissipating shortly after
sunrise. A mid level wave over central Nebraska at 0730Z will
continue to move east southeast across southeast Nebraska and into
Southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri by 16Z. Will maintain a slight
chance of showers and isolated storms as mentioned above until
around 9 AM in north central Kansas. Water vapor satellite loop
shows another shortwave upstream over Wyoming and another over
Washington State. The shortwave over Wyoming will continue to move
southeast today and reach south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Models develop convection along and ahead of a cold front moving
southeast across Nebraska by late afternoon and move southeast
across north central and northeast Kansas. Shear is marginal around
20 to 30 kts this afternoon and around 30 kts this evening with cape
1500-2000 J/kg. Expect localized strong wind gusts will be the
main hazard with the storms or complex of storms as they move
through the area this evening. Temperatures today will be around
normal with readings in the lower 90s. Lows tonight will only cool
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

By Thursday, the mid-level flow will become more northwesterly
across the central U.S. as a mid-level trough deepens across the
Great Lakes region and into the Mississippi River valley.  Lingering
showers and storms from the early morning MCS may still be present
across portions of northeast and east central Kansas Thursday
morning as some isentropic lift may help to sustain some
precipitation. Some isolated to scattered storms may persist into
the afternoon hours, but they should diminish in coverage as the
amount of available moisture and lift diminishes. Models continue to
show upslope flow across the High Plains by Thursday night.  This
flow, in combination with an embedded shortwave over southwest
NE/northeast CO, should support the development of another complex
of storms that should track southeastward across western and central
Kansas Thursday night into Friday morning. The best moisture and
lift should be focused predominantly west of the CWA, however there
is model uncertainty with how far east scattered storms may develop
across the CWA. The NAM is the most aggressive with widespread
precipitation across the CWA as it shows the potential for another
shortwave over eastern Nebraska to create a second complex of storms
that would track into northeast KS early Friday morning. With low
confidence in that solution at this time, have kept the higher PoPs
focused across central KS, but will need to continue to monitor the
potential for more widespread precipitation Thursday night. With
modest CAPE in place and around 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear, there is
the potential for some strong to marginally severe storms to
develop. However, the low-level jet continues to look weak and not
well-defined, so that should diminish the severe potential some. The
primary hazards with any strong storms would be strong wind gusts
and possibly small hail.

With lingering storms across the area on Friday keeping overcast
skies in place, expect the `coolest` conditions of the week with
highs in the low/mid 80s.  The region will remain under
northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend with additional
embedded shortwaves expected to develop within the flow. These
shortwaves in combination with a front over southern Kansas Saturday
lifting northward as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday should
support additional scattered showers and storms through the weekend.
Expect drier and warmer conditions by the start of next week as a
mid-level ridge builds in across the central U.S.  With this strong
ridge in place and persistent southerly surface winds, have
continued to trend warmer than the consensus blend for temperatures
with highs likely reaching into the mid/upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity through
the period. Winds will remain light and variable under 10 kts.
TSRA may develop or move through the terminals mainly in the 02Z
to 08Z time period and added VCTS for now.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.