Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 171708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Guidance is in general agreement for a shortwave to dig across the
northern plains today and push a frontal boundary into the
forecast area by peak heating. South of this boundary, a very
moist and hot airmass will remain with ridiculous MUCAPE values
greater than 4000 J/kg. So the expectation is for another round of
severe storms. Although this time they may develop over the
forecast area. Once again large hail and damaging winds will be
the biggest concern. The other concern today will be the heat.
Highs are forecast to reach the mid and upper 90s while dewpoints
recover into the lower 70s. This will cause heat indices to be in
the 105 to 108 degree range across east central KS. Considered a
heat warning for east central KS, and it may be needed if high
temps are a degree or two warmer. But think it may be hard for
temps to warm into the upper 90s if dewpoints are going to be in
the middle 70s. So will keep the advisory as is for now. The front
should push through with thunderstorms moving south of the area
overnight. Models show some cold air advection behind the front,
so lows should be cooler with readings in the lower and middle

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Surface ridging for Sunday and Monday should push the moist
airmass south out of the area while models don`t have much forcing
progged to move through within the northwest flow aloft. So a
break from the precip chances is forecast through Monday night. By
late Tuesday, return flow develops as the surface ridge weakens
and moves east. This is expected to bring a more moist and
unstable airmass into the region. Although forcing for storms
looks rather subtle with the mean westerlies across the northern
tier of the country. So there are a few times for Tuesday night
through Friday with some small chance POPs based on model progs.

Temps should be cooler Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s. A
warm up is expected for Tuesday through Friday with the return
flow bringing warm air back into the central plains. Lows are
expected to be in the 50s Monday morning and trend warmer through
the work week with readings forecast to be in the lower 70s by
the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Tricky forecast on timing and location of storms late afternoon
into the morning hours. A frontal boundary remains in the area and
where it is located will be where storms develop this afternoon.
Some hi-res guidance initiates storms near terminals at 21Z with
post frontal showers and storms through early morning. With this
uncertainty, have a long period of VCTS in the TAFs until details
on storm evolution become more clear.


Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ022>024-026-



SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.