Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 170824
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Water vapor showing one shortwave trough moving east/southeast
across NE on the southern portions of trough over the western Great
Lakes. These systems will phase with Northeast U.S. trough resulting
in a deeper large scale trough across the eastern CONUS into the
weekend. As a result...cooler high pressure over southern Canada and
the northern Plains will sink southward through tonight and keep
cooler northerly low level flow in place across the county warning
area today and tonight with 850 temps steadily cooling through the
period. Although some scattered high clouds will be evident across
the area today...a stratocu deck in association with the cold air
advection to the north may clip the far north/northeast portions of
the cwa with a little more in the way of clouds. The combination of
caa and some clouds will limit highs to the middle 60s in the far
northeast to around 70 across the southwestern periphery of the cwa
from the Abilene area to Emporia and Burlington where the combined
effects of cold advection and clouds will be less.

Although a few stratocu may linger into tonight across the
area...skies should be mostly clear with decreasing winds. This
should aid radiative cooling...especially late...so have trimmed
lows further into the upper 30s north of I 70 and lower 40s to the
south.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough will continue across the
eastern US through the forecast period.

Saturday will be cool as the center of a surface ridge builds
southward across the CWA. Low-level CAA will only allow highs to
reach the lower 60s despite nearly full insolation. Northeast winds
will slowly diminish through the afternoon hours. Lows Saturday
night will be in the lower 40s, some low-lying areas may drop into
the upper 30s.

Sunday through Monday, the surface ridge of high pressure will
slide east into the lower and mid MS river valley. Southerly winds
will help temperatures to warm to around 70 degrees on Sunday and
into the lower to mid 70s on Monday. Lows Sunday night will only
drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Monday night through Thursday, An upper level trough digging
southeast across central Canada into the Great Lakes States will
amplify the longer wave-length trough across the eastern US. A cold
front will push southeast across the CWA Monday night. The
low-levels will be dry and the stronger ascent will be well
northeast of the CWA across the upper Midwest and mid MS river
valley. Therefore, due a lack of deeper moisture and weak ascent,
the cold front will pass through the CWA dry. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR Conditions will continue through the period. Winds will
increase from the northwest after 15Z with higher gusts as mixing
occurs to around 875mb. Winds are expected to decrease after 22Z
as high pressure advances across eastern Kansas.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53





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