Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 190831
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
331 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Isolated convection was occurring across parts of the cwa early this
morning. Watervapor satellite shows a weak trough moving across
western Missouri and northeast Kansas. Also low level jet showed
convergence over far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri within
a precipitable water maximum over northwest Missouri. Short range
high resolution models show scattered showers and storms through 12Z
possibly lasting through 15Z this morning. Cloud debris should clear
out by late morning or early afternoon allowing temperatures to heat
back up into the mid 90s to around 102 degrees this afternoon. Heat
indices will range from 102 to 108 this afternoon and the excessive
heat warning will continue. Tonight temperatures will drop back down
into the mid and upper 70s as the lower boundary layer remains mixed
through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will be centered directly overhead
of Kansas, expected to shift slowly eastward through the day
becoming overhead of southern Missouri by Friday morning.
Temperatures continue to be the main concern Thursday through
Saturday with heat indicies expected to generally range between
103 and 107 degrees. Kept dewpoints near the lower 70s these days,
although some models do show less afternoon mixing and therefore
higher dewpoints during the afternoon hours, especially in eastern
Kansas. If this occurs, heat indicies would be a bit higher in
eastern Kansas than what is currently forecast. A front is progged
to move south into the area Saturday with the GFS only slightly
slower with timing than the ECMWF. Depending on how quickly the
front and associated cloud cover moves into the area, temperatures
this day have the potential to be a bit cooler. Overall, this
front should move into the area Saturday and linger in central and
east central Kansas Sunday, pushing south of the area by Sunday
night. This will bring a much needed cooling to high temperatures
Sunday through Wednesday with highs lowering into the upper 80s
and low 90s.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Saturday
night associated with the approaching frontal boundary.  Deep layer
shear this day currently looks unimpressive with the GFS showing the
maximum value of 25 knots.  From here, chances for precipitation
look scattered through mid-week.  Surface high pressure may nose
into northern Kansas Monday keeping conditions dry, with a mid-level
wave approaching the area by late Monday night generating more
chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

For the 06Z TAFs, LLWS concerns should continue to diminish
overnight into the morning. There is a weak LLJ aloft now, but due
to the surface winds forecast to not completely decouple have not
added LLWS. Also, radar wind profiles suggest winds up to around
30kts just above the surface, so speed shear is currently not as
strong as would be expected if winds were calm at the surface.
Too low confidence in precip chances to develop near the 12Z time
frame so have held off any mention at this time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Drake



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