Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 232317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SATURDAY HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUED ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
NE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NE.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO EXTREME
WESTERN MO BY 00Z TUE. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

BY MONDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS THERE APPEARS TO BE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS,
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
PERSISTENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER, THE GFS/GEM ARE
TRENDING WARMER FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE GFS ALSO BEING NOTICEABLY
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS AS WELL, SO HAVE STRAYED AWAY FROM THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.  INSTEAD HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH FOLLOWS MORE-SO WITH PERSISTENCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WAVE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND ADVANCING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
THE LONE MODELS PICKING UP ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER,
DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
PRESENT TO PRODUCT PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS, THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE WAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, SO EXPECT
THIS WAVE TO EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR SURGING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...67


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