Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 130521
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1121 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Surface high pressure currently centered along the NW Kansas/SW
Nebraska border will slide eastward overnight, reaching the southern
Ohio River valley by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will gradually relax
this afternoon out ahead of the approaching high and then switch to
the S/SW on Monday morning. Mid-level to high level moisture
currently over the desert SW will spread north and east overnight as
it crests a shallow H500 ridge over the Southern Plains. Low
temperatures tonight will hinge on the coverage and thickness of
these high clouds and the degree to which they limit radiational
cooling. Given the passage of the surface high overnight, continued
to lean towards the cooler side of the guidance envelope in the
northern CWA where clouds may be thinner, but increased lows a degree
or two in the south where the thicker clouds should arrive sooner.

Given the dry airmass and decreasing winds, will likely see a rapid
fall off in temperatures after sunset, followed by a steadying or
even slightly warming trend towards sunrise, especially in the
south. The majority of the synoptic and mesoscale models are
insistent on generating QPF during the day on Monday coincident with
the passage of a modest mid to upper level forcing lobe. However,
low-level sounding profiles reveal a stout wedge of dry air below
700 mb that will evaporate much of what falls from aloft. Still kept
slight chance POPs through the day to account for any light showers
that do manage to reach the surface, but kept QPF grids zeroed out.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Interaction between the northern stream trough and the upper low in
the southwest may generate enough lift for some light precipitation
across portions of the cwa Monday evening. As has been the case the
last few days mid level moisture looks adequate and low levels
slowly moisten early in the evening. Temperature profiles suggest a
mix of rain, sleet and snow with little or no accumulation expected.
Forcing shifts to the south after 06Z Tuesday so have gone dry
thereafter. Northwest upper flow pattern on Tuesday gives way to
rising heights on Thursday as an upper ridge begins to build into
the Plains for the end of the week and into next weekend. Have
trended temperatures upward for Thursday through Saturday.
Temperatures for much of the mid term will be in the 50s Tuesday and
Wednesday warming into the 60s for Thursday through Sunday. Next
chance of precipitation comes late Sunday with the approach of
another upper trough into the Southern and Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds tonight will turn out of the south to southwest
less than 10 kts during the day Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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