Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 282045
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Forecast focus on timing and evolution of convection along front
this evening then on clouds/temps overnight into Saturday.

19z sfc map shows the cold front roughly along a Marysville to
Manhattan to Hutchinson line. Mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE of
around 1500 J/KG while effective shear is approx. 20kts so enough
to provide the environment for a few sustained updrafts however
700- 500mb lapse rates are modest at best so do not anticipate
organized severe storms this evening. Expect at least sct
thunderstorm development to continue and will keep 30-50 pops for
the eastern half of the area this evening. The front will only
gradually shift across the area overnight with satellite and fcst
soundings both suggesting that stratus could overspread the area
as the front passes after midnight tonight and persist for a time
sat morning before clearing by afternoon. North winds should keep
highs in the lower 80s on Saturday however with no strong dry air
push this time around it looks like dewpoints will remain in the
lower 60s behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Strong upper ridging builds northeast over the region for the
remainder of the weekend with dry conditions expected through
Monday. Temps gradually rise between Sunday and Monday as sfc
troughing builds into the CWA, enhancing the low level warm
advection by Monday afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s Monday will
translate to lower 90s on Monday. Overnight lows are mostly in the
lower 60s.

Mid to late next week, a longwave trough will continue to dig over
the western CONUS and a longwave ridge will remain in place from
West Texas into the High Plains of Western KS to start and slowly
build further North and West into the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes region through the week.  The most active period during
this time will likely be overnight Tuesday into the early Wednesday
morning time frame.  WAA will set up over the Southern and Central
Plains ahead of the lee trough set up over the front range of the
Rockies.  A mid level shortwave could be ejected out of Colorado and
help set up an area of isentropic lift during the early morning on
Wednesday. The likely bet on precipitation will be for elevated
storms to develop with the aid of the LLJ in place over northeastern
KS into southeastern NE.  Some storms could produce mainly hail with
some stronger winds, but at this time severe potential looks minimal
with a general lack of instability aloft.  Into the day Wednesday,
the upper level ridge will continue to build in stronger over the
region and provide a mostly capped environment and warmer temps for
the rest of the week.  Highs will likely climb into the low to mid
90s with overnight low temps in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Difficult forecast in trying to pin down the timing of the front and
associated storms/lowering of visbys and ceilings. Expect storms
to begin forming at 21Z just east of MHK, therefore keeping MHK
precip free the rest of the period. Have kept VCTS in TOP/FOE
through 03Z, before the front moves east of these sites. Winds
will shift from the NE overnight and ceilings/visbys behind the
front will deteriorate. Have included MVFR conditions for all
sites between 09-10Z, although some models are hinting conditions
could drop to the IFR category.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Heller


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