Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 142019
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

A broad H300 trough was evident in the early afternoon water vapor
imagery across the central Great Lakes region, dipping southwestward
into Iowa and NE Kansas. Weakly cyclonic surface flow could be found
across eastern Kansas with bands of localized convergence leading to
the development of several narrow shower bands around the noon hour.
These showers had started decaying by 1:30pm, but given the presence
of outflow boundaries under a weak to non-existent cap, expect the
threat for isolated showers thunderstorms to continue through the
afternoon and then wane with daytime heating.

With the surface ridge axis laying out across the NE/KS border
overnight, have continued patchy to area fog wording for many areas
along and north of the Kansas River valley. The fog will likely be
densest in areas that saw the heaviest rainfall yesterday. Upper
level ridging builds eastward tonight and tomorrow with high
pressure over the Upper Mississippi River valley sliding southward
and back building to the west. Despite the lack of a strong cap
above the LFC, lower mid-level lapse rates combined with mid to
upper level subsidence should limit any shower or storm chances.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Upper ridge expands into northeast Kansas by Saturday evening
with dry conditons returning to the area. Temperatures and
humidity levels gradually increase Sunday and Monday with highs in
the lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s with light and
variable sfc winds. On Monday evening into Tuesday, a northern
stream shortwave trough traverses the northern plains. Latest runs
of the GFS and ECMWF push a frontal boundary southward into
western NE, generating convection during the evening hours. Output
has varied somewhat on how far the trough sinks southward and
subsequently where the boundary and precipitation end up, so have
opted to leave in the slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday
evening across north central areas. Upper ridge quickly builds
back in for the remainder of the week with highs in the mid to
upper 90s, while heat indices are in excess of 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Scattered peak heating showers and storms will persist through
the afternoon hours across areas of NE Kansas with localized wind
gust above 30 kts possible with some storms. These storms will
decrease this evening with VFR conditions and light winds for
tonight into tomorrow.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Skow



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