Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 200841
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

As of 08z, a closed upper level low centered across south central
Nebraska. At the surface, a low pressure center was across northeast
Kansas with a cold front oriented north to south from eastern Kansas
into northern Texas. Isentropic lift to the north of the surface
low has continued to provide sufficient lift for scattered showers
through the overnight. As the low and cold front push east of the
area, expect precipitation to come to an end for much of the by
dawn. Cloud cover along with CAA, high temperatures this afternoon
will struggle to near 60 for the northern counties and upper 60s for
the southeastern counties. As the surface low ejects to the
northeast a pressure gradient will remain in place through early
afternoon, resulting in the westerly winds gusting upwards of 25
MPH. High pressure will build across the central plains late this
evening into the overnight. Cloud cover is expected to clear late
this evening allowing overnight lows to dip into the low to middle
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

SUNDAY, AN INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE A SHORTER WAVE Length UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE FROM WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST Surface WINDS AND HIGHS NEAR 70
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST counties TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF Residual
MOISTURE RETURN FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM.

MONDAY afternoon THE 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30
KTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS, ALONG WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG,
EVEN THOUGH FORECAST soundings DO NOT SHOW LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700 AND 500 MB BEING THAT STEEP, THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE storms SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL rockies ON MONDAY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S
EVEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BUT THE
STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL CAUSE A FULL Latitude UPPER TROUGH TO FORM, WHICH WILL SHIFT
EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
CENTER OF A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT southeast ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
AMPLIFIED FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO shift EAST
OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. EVEN WITH INSOLATION, HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

For the 06Z TAFs, SHRA continues at TOP/FOE for a few hours. Have
left VCTS with some instability aloft over the area. CIGS should
gradually lower into the overnight and likely see IFR. Some
guidance is hinting at LIFR but have held off for now due to lower
confidence. CIGS should lift into the mid morning time frame as
mixing in the lower levels takes place.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake



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