Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 152016
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

Wednesday`s weather has been nearly perfect as surface high pressure
was situated directly overhead with light winds and wall-to-wall
sunshine. The beautiful weather will continue into tonight as the
surface ridge slowly drifts east and an upper ridge axis keeps the
airmass very dry. Winds will remain light and skies mostly clear
through morning, but a south breeze by sunrise should keep lows in
the lower to middle 40s. The south wind will increase to 10-15 mph
by noon before a cold front crosses the area from northwest to
southeast between roughly noon and 5 PM. This will be a dry frontal
passage as there is almost no appreciable moisture to work with, but
winds will turn out of the north with gusts to 20+ mph behind the
front. Highs are expected to be in the lower to middle 70s across
the entire area, even with the late day cold advection.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The cold front that is expected to enter into the forecast area
earlier in the day on Thursday is progged to be exiting far eastern
Kansas Thursday evening, with surface high pressure advancing into
the area behind this front. Weak northerly winds behind the front
will help to advect some slightly cooler air into the region with
high temperatures on Friday dropping into the mid/upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. As a mid-level ridge builds across the Rockies,
it will help to advance the surface high pressure further eastward
across the forecast area through the weekend, resulting in dry
conditions. With this surface high in place, it should keep
temperatures a bit cooler through the weekend with highs in the 60s
and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.  Models show an area of
surface low pressure developing over the Highs Plains Saturday night
with an associated cold front tracking eastward into the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. There doesn`t look to be much moisture or
forcing available with this frontal passage and, as a result, the
models have trended drier with this system. So have removed the
mention of PoPs for Sunday and have reduced PoPs to only the
southeastern half of the CWA for Sunday night with the best
potential for a few rain showers looking to be across far east
central Kansas. With surface high pressure quickly spilling into the
region behind this frontal passage, have a dry forecast through the
middle of next week with high temperatures trending a few degrees
warming in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Another cold front looks to
approach the region by the latter part of the week, bringing the
next chance of precipitation to the area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF with only a very
small potential for brief VIS restrictions near 12Z at TOP due to
shallow fog. Winds will remain light and eventually turn out of
the south at all sites.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





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