Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 181129
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

An upper level trough extending from eastern MO into southeast TX
will continue to push east across the lower MS river valley. Skies
should begin to clear across the northern counties of the CWA
around sunrise and through the remainder of the CWA during the mid
morning hours. Some areas that clear out before sunrise may see
some patchy ground fog, however, any ground fog that develops
should mix out an hour after sunrise.

Upslope flow across the central high plains combined with a weak H5
trough digging southeast across western NE may cause showers and
thunderstorms to develop across eastern CO and western KS this
afternoon, but this activity should remain well west and northwest
of the CWA and will dissipate after sunset as it moves into central
NE and western KS.

Highs Today will reach around 80 degrees across much of the CWA.

Clear skies and light winds tonight may allow for some patchy fog to
develop within river valleys and low-lying areas. Overnight lows
will be around 60 across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

Not many significant changes to previous forecast. Main story for
the weekend into early next week will be warming temperatures with
upper high ridge building from the Southern Rockies into the Plains.
Zonal flow north of the ridge over the Northern Rockies will keep
south to southwest winds in place and bring much warmer air into the
lower troposphere. Apparent temperatures will rise as well, and
expect many locations to reach triple digits-plus Sunday into early
next week. Mid level temps should rise enough to keep some capping
in place and a lack of obvious forcing mechanisms will keep the
forecast dry through Monday. GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement
with a deepening shortwave rounding the ridge and bringing a weak
cold front into the area around Tuesday. Low level convergence and
some potential for a weakening cap bring at least small
precipitation chances in the Monday night to Wednesday periods, with
minor chances for the boundary to retreat through the area Thursday.
At this point only expect minor cooling with this front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions Today. Light winds will become southeasterly
at 6 to 10 KTS. The winds become calm after sunset. Patchy ground
fog may be possible towards sunrise Saturday at KTOP.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan






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