Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 132331
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The afternoon synoptic setup over the region featured a departing
area of surface high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley
with a cutoff low over the SW US pumping mid-level moisture into the
Central Plains. Scattered showers developed along a narrow region of
elevation frontogenesis today and were slowly decaying over the
northern CWA this afternoon. A weak ribbon of theta-e advection will
aid in driving another round of light elevated showers over the
southern CWA this evening before shifting south as a strong ridge
builds to the north. Left POPs at slight chance to chance given the
large wedge of dry air over the central and southern CWA with
current Td depressions of around 30 to 35 degrees F. Northerly flow
will prevail through the day on Tuesday downstream of the ridge axis
but a weak H850 thermal ridge coupled with modest mixing as depicted
in the NAM/GFS soundings should be enough to push temperatures into
the low to mid 50s. Clouds should likewise be on the decline
tomorrow as the ridge becomes better established and the Southern
Plains low shifts east and weakens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

No real weather to note in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame as
northwest flow still persists over the region.  Highs Wednesday will
be comfortable and above normal in the 50s with lows in the upper
20s to around 30.  Temps could warm in the 60s on Thursday as
ridging begins to build into the region with flow off the Rockies.
Fire weather concerns could increase on Thursday with the dry air
and higher temps in place with dry fuels.

Friday through the weekend, perhaps a little more activity in the
otherwise mostly benign weather pattern that has been in place could
take shape.  Though no snow or winter precip is expected, another
trough begins to dig into the western CONUS likely bringing them
unwelcome rain. Meanwhile, in response the ridge over the Central
Plains sharpens increasing in amplitude with WAA on the increase
steadily into the weekend. This should help push temps into the
upper 60s and perhaps low 70 range. With a mainly dry airmass
still in place for Friday, there may be some increased fire
weather concerns again. But, winds don`t look all that strong at
this time. Something to keep in mind. Although northeast Kansas
vicinity remains largely in between weather systems, there could
be just enough instability, forcing and lift with enough moisture
in place by late Sunday night into Monday time frame to see a few
periods of thunderstorms as the front slowly pushes through the
region as the mean flow lifts a trough through the Central and
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions are likely with cigs around 8000 ft AGL through
this evening and increasing after midnight. Occasional light rain
or even ice pellet showers are possible this evening. Winds
increase to 10-15 kts after 15Z from the northwest with clear
skies.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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