Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 190828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with main concern being TSRA
potential. Cluster of TSRA over north central KS is progged to
gradually dissipate towards the southeast overnight. Short term
guidance maintains scattered TSRA aft 08Z so will leave VCTS
mention through 11Z at KMHK and 14Z at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen




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