Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 302313
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT
THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE TO EASTERLY BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS...BUT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 12-15 KNOT WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KGUY. OTHERWISE...HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

JUST A FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FOUND IT ODD THAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE FALL WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. ON THAT ISSUE...REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE THORN IN OUR SIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE
UPR AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONFUSED WITH WHAT TO DO
WITH A DIGGING WRN TROUGH AND A DYING EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEM IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING. DID INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES MON/MON NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS-WISE...HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LOW 70S WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT TOMORROW AND TUE WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY TAP 32 BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT WEEK (TONIGHT, FRI
NIGHT, AND TUE NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS).

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03






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