Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
530 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

IFR conditions are expected to start the 12Z TAF period. Once we
go past 18Z, all TAF sites should be at VFR with mostly clear
skies. Latest satellite analysis shows the 500-1000 ft AGL cigs
should approximately begin to dissipate around 14-15Z for KAMA,
15-16Z for KDHT and 17-18Z for KGUY. Westerly winds will increase
around 18Z to 20-25 kts with gusts over 35 kts at times. Winds
will then diminish to around 15 kts out of the northwest by 00Z
Sunday and then shift to southerly to southwesterly around 10 kts
by 06Z Sunday to the end of the TAF period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

Critical and elevated fire weather conditions at the forefront of
the forecast.  No precipitation expected next seven days.

Models and ensembles in reasonably good agreement through
Tuesday, with some timing differences emerging thereafter.

Widespread saturated low-level atmosphere in place early this
morning will be eradicated from west to east today as Pacific cold
front arrives.  Strong west winds aloft will mix to the surface,
with blowing dust possible this afternoon.  Canadian cold front
then arrives, with winds shifting to northwest.  High
temperatures today and Sunday close to normal.

Another shortwave trof passes on Sunday, acting to tighten
pressure gradient and keep atmosphere well mixed.  Flow aloft
becomes more zonal on Monday, leading to development of next lee
trof and increasing south and southwest winds.  High temperatures
on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday expected to be above normal with
highs mainly in the 60s.  Next cold front arrives late Wednesday
with a slight cooldown expected for Thursday.  Warmer again on
Friday.  03


Critical fire weather conditions expected to develop today across
the southwest and south-central Texas Panhandle, with elevated
fire weather conditions adjacent to the the critical area.  Dry
west and northwest winds will increase as the Pacific and Canadian
cold fronts pass today.  RFTI values of 3 to 6 are expected in
the critical area.

On Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
the southwest half of the Combined Panhandles, with spotty
critical fire weather conditions possibly developing.

On Monday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
likely to develop, especially across the northwest half of the
Combined Panhandles.

On Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions may develop across
western parts of the Panhandles.

On Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
across the Texas Panhandle.

No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected

On Friday, elevated fire weather conditions may develop across the
northwest half of the Combined Panhandles.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Deaf Smith...




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