Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 300332 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1032 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the 06Z TAFs...VFR conditions should persist for the majority of
the forecast period. However, thunderstorms will continue at KAMA for
the first several hours. Therefore, have included a TEMPO group to
account for strong wind gusts out of the northwest, lowered
visibility, and lowered ceilings. KGUY could see some low clouds
early tomorrow morning, however confidence is low and therefore have
not included it in this TAF issuance. Light easterly winds overnight
should start gusting and increase in the afternoon hours and shift to
a more southerly direction.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 546 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

For the 00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected for the most part at
all terminals. However, thunderstorms are still expected to move into
our area from New Mexico and southeast Colorado. There is little
confidence in what exactly the thunderstorms will do, but KDHT looks
to have the best chance of getting something and perhaps even KAMA
later on tonight. Therefore, have continued a TEMPO group for
thunderstorms for KDHT and added a TEMPO group for KAMA. There also
exists a chance for a brief wind shift to accompany any
thunderstorms and should be out of the west or northwest. KGUY could
see a scattered layer of low clouds around 2000 ft AGL in the early
morning hours. Otherwise, some mid to high level clouds could linger
through the day tomorrow with winds generally out of the south and
becoming gusty in the afternoon hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

Showers and some low topped thunderstorms continue to move southeast
across the eastern Panhandles. The precipitation is associated with
an upper level trough along the central TX/OK Panhandle border as
seen with the latest visible satellite observations with Cu`s in the
eastern Panhandles and drier air aloft in the western Panhandles.
Latest surface and 500 hPa observations shows a second trough out to
the west across NM with upslope flow and a residual outflow boundary
will slowly makes it way east into the western Panhandles. Some
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening into
tonight across the Panhandles and will dissipate by Saturday

As we go into the second half of Saturday through mid next week, an
upper level high pressure system will move back east into the region
and bring tranquil weather conditions and very warm temperatures to
the Panhandles. Some upslope convection across NM may bring an
isolated thunderstorms to the far western Panhandles as we go into
early next week but confidence is low at this time. Temperatures will
be above average throughout the weekend into next week with high
temperatures will range from the mid 90s to near triple digits.

18Z TAFs - On and off showers and thunderstorms will impact the TAF
sites through the afternoon and evening hours. Have the best timing
in there for now, but it will likely change as confidence is low in
the persistence and scattered nature of coverage. Winds will
generally favor an easterly to southeasterly direction and less than
15kts outside of convection. Medium to high confidence that VFR
conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon outside of
convection too, although KGUY could see some MVFR cigs/vsbys early
Saturday morning.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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