Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 301752 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL GO AROUND THE DIAL
DURG THIS FCST CYCLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD MOVE INTO DHT WITHIN THIS NEXT
HOUR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
17Z. SKIES WILL THEN BE IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST. NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST CHANCE MAY HAVE PASSED FOR AMARILLO INTL AP
TO BREAK ITS WETTEST MAY RECORD. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE
PANHANDLES...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY FURTHER SHOWERS OR
STORMS THIS MORNING. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POSSIBLE STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE A CHANCE YET BEFORE THE END OF THE
MONTH.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN
HAS FINALLY BROKEN. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AS BROADER RIDGING TAKES ITS
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND A PERSISTENT LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BUT RAPID
WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE
TO RECENT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...HAVE NOT OPTED FOR THE
HIGHER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS MODELS LIKELY NOT TAKING FULL
ACCOUNT OF SOIL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. EITHER
WAY...SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE WARM UP AFTER RECENT COOL AND RAINY
DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO BECOME
VERY AMPLIFIED...SO PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE
TRIGGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THESE COULD BE STEERED INTO THE PANHANDLES. FOR NOW...MOST CONFIDENT
IN THIS HAPPENING ON MONDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME MAKE IT
IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.