Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds
will shift from easterly to southerly as we go through the day on
Thursday. Winds will be sustained between 10-15 kts with gusts to 20
kts possible starting around 15Z Wednesday for KDHT/KGUY. Once we go
past 00Z Friday, winds will diminish below 10 kts for all TAF sites
through to the end of the TAF period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

An upper level ridge will dominate the central and southern high
plains through about Sunday. Then it will break down to allow an
upper level low to drive across the Great Basin on Monday and then
across Wyoming on Tuesday and into South Dakota by Wednesday.

On the surface, east and southeast winds will gradually become more
southerly by late this afternoon. They will remain fairly light,
except for the northwest CWA where the winds will increase into the
10 to 20 mph range. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler
today compared to yesterday given the upslope flow for much of the
day and the added cloud cover.

Temperatures will rebound Friday into early next week as gusty south
to southwest winds prevail.

There is an outside chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of the panhandles from later Friday night into Saturday night as an
upper level short wave passes through the high plains ridge. This
feature will not have much moisture or instability to work with, so
think coverage will be fairly sparse at this point.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may return Monday night through
Tuesday night for mainly the central and eastern panhandles. With
the upper level low passing to the north of the panhandles, this
normally spells dry slot or our area. But there is some indication
that some low level moisture may return this far west to hook up
with the dynamics from the passing low to help produce showers and
thunderstorms. Will mention a slight chance for now, but will have
to watch as we get closer as these chances may move more into
western Oklahoma with time.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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