Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 292329 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR...AND THEN DROP
NOTABLY TO BELOW 10 KT.  DIRECTION OF SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND TO LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST NEAR
KDHT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS DUST PLUME ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO WANE.  ON
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND 30+ KTS
AT 850 MB LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY...LEADING TO PLEASANT EARLY SPRING
WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS CAN BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CAN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
BENEATH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL BE. ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA
AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED THERE. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THERE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE NORTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 MPH
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
TUESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  76  48  85  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
BEAVER OK                  37  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              40  77  45  83  48 /   0   5  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  43  77  52  86  55 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              39  79  46  86  47 /   0   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  40  76  48  84  49 /   0   5   5  20  10
CLARENDON TX               41  75  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
DALHART TX                 39  78  43  84  45 /   0   5  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  39  79  44  85  49 /   0   5   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                40  75  47  84  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                37  77  48  86  51 /   0   0   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   41  75  49  84  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                41  76  50  87  52 /   0   0   5  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              42  76  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14




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