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726
FLUS44 KTSA 161003
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017



This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...west central and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...west central and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...west central and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This evening

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Late morning.


DISCUSSION...
A cold front will continue moving southeast towards the region
today. Well out ahead of the front...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop by afternoon across parts of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The severe risk with
these storms will remain limited...but will be capable of
producing quarter size hail and winds to 60 miles an hour.

Increased coverage for storms will come this evening and into the
overnight hours as the cold front makes its way into the region.
In addition to a marginal severe hail and wind risk...the
strongest storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall which may lead to flash flooding...especially in areas
that have already seen several rounds of heavy rainfall.

Additionally...High relative humidity in place will likely produce
heat index values of 100 to 105 today across the area...mainly for
locations across eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas that
remain rain free with limited cloud cover.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across far eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the front continues to clear
the area. Additional thunderstorm chances will continue
overnight Thursday into Friday as another disturbance enters the
plains in the west to northwest flow aloft pattern. Upper level
ridging is expected to commence over the weekend and continue into
next week...and will offer the warm and humid conditions typical
of August. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible...but organized convection is not expected for at least the
first part of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$