Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 020958
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015


...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY... WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL... GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IN ANY LOCATIONS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER... ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY... INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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