Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 252315
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
715 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region providing dry conditions and near record
temperatures through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to track
through our region late Wednesday and Wednesday night leading to
cooler weather and normal temperatures by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers in southern VT and a thunderstorm in the
Taconics, will dissipate this evening. The isolated activity
is partially associated with a weak backdoor wind shift
boundary shifting surface winds to light east to southeast.
Winds will go calm tonight, though, without much of a pressure
gradient in the region. Otherwise a clear to mostly clear sky
will once again prevail through the night and some wisps of this
high clouds are seen tracking into our region but very thin
high clouds.

Temperatures will fall into the 60s but some upper 50s northern
areas. Fog is expected along rivers, lakes and swamps once
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Once fog lifts and burns off, a sunny sky should prevail once
again and any showers that could develop in the afternoon would
be so isolated, not mentioning at this time until mesoscale
models can aid in pinpointing specific areas where isolated
showers are possible. Winds will be light east to southeast when
they are nearly calm and low level moisture will make the highs
in the 80s to around 90 feel like summer once again.

Wednesday looks like our last summer like day as upper ridging
gets flattened and squeezed east as upper troughing and an
associated cold front approach. There is relatively little
moisture associated with the cold front but the heat and
humidity along with some instability will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. WArm
temperatures aloft and light winds will limit the instability
and shear, so chances of strong to severe thunderstorms look
minimal. Highs Wednesday in the 80s to near 90.

The surface cold front and wind shift is timed to track through
late Wednesday afternoon and night, then the boundary layer
cold front and deeper cold air tracks through Thursday morning.
Any lingering morning clouds will exit and there should be
considerable sun and north winds, perhaps breezy at times. Highs
Thursday in the lower to mid 70s but 60s in higher terrain.
Temperatures may fall during Thursday afternoon but we will see
the timing of the deeper cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
After a stretch of anomously warm weather, we expect the region to
finish out September with more fall-like temperatures and even a
threat for much needed rain showers.

The cold front from Thursday should be situated south and east of
our CWA by Friday with northwesterly flow around a Canadian high
ushering in more seasonable temperatures. Most spots stay in the 60s
for daytime highs (near 70 mid-Hudson Valley) and much lower
humidity. We`ll see increasing clouds from northwest to southeast
through the day as a short-wave trough embedded in the progressive
mid and upper level long wave trough approaches Friday
afternoon/evening from the Great Lakes.

The positive vorticity advection ahead of the short-wave and weak
warm air advection will enable isolated to scattered showers to move
into our region. Guidance has slowed down with the onset timing of
showers as the system will have to fight some dry air initially.
Most scattered showers look to hold off until after sunset in the
Adirondacks and gradually move south and east through the
overnight. Overall, we are not expecting a significant amount
of rain with this event, mainly around a tenth or so. The system
is slow to exit and the trough axis may not cross our entire
CWA until midday Saturday. Thus, lingered cloud coverage through
the daytime with high temperatures feeling much more like fall
in the 60s. Skies clear overnight and lows should fall in the
40s (upper 30s highest elevations), potentially yielding some
patchy frost in the Adirondacks.

High pressure noses in from the Midwest to start October with
pleasant and dry conditions expected Sunday to Monday. Return flow
begins by Monday as the high shifts into New England bringing
temperatures back into the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place
over the region through Tuesday morning.

A few showers and a thunderstorm should stay far enough away
from the TAF sites this evening so no mention of VCSH/VCTS
needed. Outside of this isolated activity, the sky is mostly
clear and should remain mostly clear with just some intervals of
thin high clouds later tonight.

Later tonight, another round of radiational mist/fog is likely
with greatest confidence for IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF
once again especially shortly before or just after 06Z.
KALB/KPOU less confident for IFR or lower conditions and we have
placed some shallow fog/MIFG or visibilities close to 5SM. Fog
ends by 12Z-13Z and VFR conditions return Tuesday morning with
VFR continuing through Tuesday afternoon.

Expect calm winds tonight and light east to southeast winds at
6 Kt or less Tuesday morning through afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region providing dry conditions and near record
temperatures through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to track
through our region late Wednesday and Wednesday night leading to
cooler weather and normal temperatures by Thursday.

RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range tonight and
Tuesday night. RH values will drop to 45 to 60 percent this
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.

East to southeast winds at less than 15 mph tonight, Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Winds shift to southwest at les than 15 mph
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into this coming work week as high pressure dominates. The
next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with
less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be possible today through Tuesday.

Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 25-26:

Albany NY:
September 25th/Monday: 91 degrees 2017
September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007

Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
September 25th/Monday: 90 degrees 2017
September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
September 25th/Monday: 91 degrees 2017
September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007 Records date back to
1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July
2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
CLIMATE...


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