Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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