Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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688
FXUS61 KALY 011055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND PA INTO ERN NY THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY...WRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL AND KENX RADARS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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