Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. ANY FOG OR STRATUS NOW
LONG GONE. SHALLOW DIURNAL CU WAS SEEN ON OUR VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE DO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. AFTER
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB...SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ALONG WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA


OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.