Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...AND WARM DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED
BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 1245 AM EST...ALL QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. THE SKY WAS MAINLY
CLEAR (JUST A FEW CIRRUS FLOATING AROUND). THE WIND HAS BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM AND SINCE WE ARE NOW SOLIDLY IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS FROM CANADA...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN THROUGH THE
60S...AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EVEN WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S.


AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE. WE THEREFORE CONTINUE A LITTLE
BELOW THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST TEMPS FROM I-90 NORTH FALLING INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY
AND WARM CONDITIONS...AFTER AN INITIAL COOL START. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW...SO IT SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS ARRIVE IN NW AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK SAT...WHILE THE MAJORITY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...WITH JUST
SOME CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND. EXPECT MILD TEMPS...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER CLOSE TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

SAT-SUN...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACHING/PASSING FRONT FROM THE N AND W...WITH SOME SUGGESTION
OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR LATE SAT...AND MORE SO FOR SAT
NT AND EARLY SUN...BEFORE TAPERING FROM N TO S LATER SUN. AS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SAT NT...AT TIME OF MINIMAL HEATING. ALSO...0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OR LESS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ALSO NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN
THE 5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC HEATING IS ALSO IN
QUESTION SAT AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION LIMITING HEATING...ESP FOR AREAS N OF I-90. AT THIS
TIME...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS TIME COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD ANY TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP LATE SAT
OR SAT NT. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S
SAT AFTN...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE OCCUR THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE TRICKIEST TEMPS WILL BE SUNDAY...AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IF
CLOUDS AND ESPECIALLY RAIN PERSIST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE QUITE
LIMITED...PERHAPS BARELY RISING OUT OF THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAXES...IN THE 65-70 RANGE IN VALLEYS AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IN CASE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ANY THIN SPOTS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...OR THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN A BIT ALLOWING FOR
WARMER MORNING TEMPS BEFORE FROPA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IF THE SFC BOUNDARY PASSES AND RAINFALL LINGERS IN ITS
WAKE...MUCH COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE DAILY...WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
70S.  BY THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
NORMAL HIGHS AT ALBANY ARE IN THE MID 70S.  LOWS WILL BECOME ONLY
SLIGHTLY MILDER DAILY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AT ALL
LOCATIONS.  NORMAL LOWS AT ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
THE REGION HAS NOW MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. FOR TONIGHT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...UNTIL AFTER 06Z-07Z WHEN SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES. TOO FAR OUT TO BE
SPECIFIC...SO INDICATING MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 500 FEET...BUT KGFL AND KPSF COULD SEE BROKEN CEILINGS
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. BY 14Z...ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
MIX OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.

WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REMAIN VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS
AFTER DAYBREAK AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT FOR
FRI AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT
INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES OCCURRED...ESP FROM SCHENECTADY CO INTO CENTRAL
SARATOGA CO AND SE WARREN/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
HALF...TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES BETWEEN SAT AND SUN. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS...ESP SHOULD ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
REPEATEDLY OCCUR IN ANY LOCATION.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM/11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



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