Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 222028
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
328 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Along with decreasing amounts of cloud cover, brisk and
chilly conditions are expected tonight.  Dry and continued chilly
weather is expected for Thanksgiving Day.  Temperatures will
moderate on Friday, before an approaching cold front returns the
chance for some showers on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 328 PM EST...An upper level trough located over the
region will be departing to the east this evening. At the
surface, a cold front is now located well-downstream of the area
over eastern New England, and cooler air is working into the
region behind the front, both aloft and within the low-levels.

Visible satellite imagery continues to show low clouds in
place, as the cool northwest flow crossing the Great Lakes is
allowing for plenty of low stratocu clouds. Some breaks will
start to occur overnight, as approaching high pressure over the
Ohio Valley allows inversion levels to lower. Before that
occurs, there could be some very light lake-effect flurries or
snow showers over far western areas, but little to no snow
accumulation is expected due to the very light and shallow
nature of the lake-effect precipitation.

Although it has been breezy at times this afternoon, the
approaching high pressure area should allow for winds to start
to diminish tonight. Along with decreasing wind, the clearing
skies should allow temps fall overnight to the mid teens to mid
20s across the region, which is about 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure passing by to the south, dry weather is
expected for Thanksgiving Day, although it will continue to be
fairly chilly. There should be a good deal of sunshine in the
morning hours, with a bit more cloud cover for the afternoon.
Highs will range from near 30 in the Adirondacks to near 40 in
the mid-Hudson Valley.

Another shortwave trough will slide by to the north for Thursday
evening into Thursday night. This should have little impact for
most areas, although the far northwestern Adirondacks may be
close enough to see a few passing light snow showers or
flurries. Any accumulation looks to be just an inch or less,
mainly for areas north of Old Forge and Raquette Lake.
Elsewhere, it will continue to be chilly with a partly to mostly
cloudy sky, with lows in the 20s.

High pressure will allow for dry weather once again on Friday.
With a southerly flow in place, temps will be a little milder
than recent days, with a mostly sunny sky. Highs should reach
the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region. Clouds may start
to increase for Friday night, as the next system starts to
approach from the Great Lakes. Most areas should stay dry
through Friday night, although the western Adirondacks could
start to see a shower towards daybreak Saturday. Lows will be in
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period is expected to be unsettled to start followed
by drier weather during the later half of the long term period.

On Saturday a low pressure system will be tracking across northeast
Canada dragging a warm front and then a cold front through the area.
By Saturday night the cold front will be east of the area, however a
secondary trough of low pressure will be crossing the region late at
night. Mainly scattered rain and snow showers are expected with a
light accumulation of snow late Saturday night across the
northwestern third of the forecast area. Highs on Saturday will be
in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Lows Saturday night will be in the
mid 20s to mid 30s.

On Sunday scattered lake effect rain and snow showers will occur
with the activity diminishing Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday will
be in the mid 20s to upper 30s with lows Sunday night in the upper
teens to upper 20s.

Dry weather is expected Monday through Tuesday night as a large
ridge of high pressure builds into the region from Mid Atlantic
states on Monday and off the eastern seaboard late Monday night and
Tuesday. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid
40s with lows Monday night in the 20s to around 30. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with lows Tuesday night in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. A return to some unsettled weather is expected
on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Highs will be
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Overall expect temperatures to average near normal with
precipitation near normal during the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Steady showers have just pushed east of the Hudson with mainly MVFR
CIGS for KGFL-KALB-KPOU.  However, favorable upslope conditions into
the Berkshires have resulted in IFR conditions which should linger
over the next few hours along with showers.  As upper trough remains
upstream, we will hold onto VCSH at this time but if showers were to
impact the TAF locations, it would be minimal and very short
duration this afternoon.

Sct-bkn stratocumulus will become less in coverage early this
evening. The skies will clear overnight in the subsidence in the
wake of the coastal system with VFR conditions.

The winds have or will shortly shift to the west to northwest at
around 10 kts with some gusts in the 20-26 kt range. The winds will
gradually diminish early this evening to around 10 kts or less.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry and chilly weather is expected for tonight into
tomorrow (Thanksgiving Day). RH values will be 75 to 90 percent
tonight and fall to 45 to 75 percent tomorrow, with the highest
values in northern and high terrain areas. Northwest winds of 5
to 15 mph tonight with switch to the west around 5 to 10 mph
tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week.

Aside from a few passing light lake effect snow showers or
flurries over the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks, mainly dry
weather is expected for tonight through Friday. A passing cold
front may bring some light rain (or possibly mountain snow)
showers to the area on Saturday. There may be some additional
lake-effect snow showers again for western areas on Sunday,
otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected to end the weekend
into early next week. This light precipitation will have little
to no impact on rivers and streams.  As a result, river and
stream levels will generally hold steady. Temperatures will be
fairly seasonable for late November.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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