Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 200032
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
732 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The mild temperatures will continue through the weekend.
Higher pressure will build in tonight into Friday resulting
fair weather. A disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will bring some light precipitation to the area late
in the day Friday and Friday night with mainly as rain. However
across portions of the southern Adirondacks into the Lake
George region and in parts of southern Vermont freezing rain is
possible. Fair weather returns for much of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Ridging will build in aloft as the surface high shifts eastward
across the region. Clouds will dominate as moisture is trapped
under a low level inversion. It will be a mild night with lows
only dropping into the 20s; around 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With high pressure in control for the first part of tomorrow,
some locations may see some breaks in the clouds, mainly south
of the Capital District. The clouds will be most persistent
across the high terrain where moisture will continue to be
trapped under an inversion. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will
top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s but this is highly
dependent on cloud cover.

Clouds then begin increasing again from the southwest as a weak
negatively tilted shortwave moves towards the region tomorrow
evening. This shortwave will be weakening as it runs into the
upper level ridge and isn`t expected to have much moisture
associated with it. Despite the lack of moisture/dynamics, some
light rain will still be possible tomorrow night into Saturday
morning, especially for southern locations. Some spots that drop
below freezing could see some light freezing rain, mainly
across the western Adirondacks and high terrain of western New
England, but QPF amounts should remain light. Low temperatures
will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s area-wide.

Any lingering precipitation will come to an end Saturday
morning as surface high pressure/upper level ridging moves back
into the region. This will lead to a fairly mild and mostly dry
weekend with temperatures reaching the low 40s to low 50s on
Saturday and the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday
night are expected in the 30s. Precipitation associated with
the next major storm system arrives on our doorstep Sunday
evening, bringing rain to the lower elevations and a wintry mix
to the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active pattern continues with basically a broad trough across the
CONUS. There is general agreement for a storm system will impact
the eastern seaboard early next week originating over the deep
south. However they are differences in the details regarding the
track and strength of the system. At this time it appears the
surface low should pass to our southeast and be near or off the
coast. Temperatures across the region will be mild ahead of the
system so in addition to snow rain will be possible especially
during the day and at the lower elevations. There is uncertainty
to the precipitation amounts and types; with heavy rainfall and
snowfall are possibilities. Have added mention of the storm to
our hazardous weather outlook.

Guidance indicates ridging will try and build in between this system
and the next one approaching from the Plains but it would short-lived.
This next system is expected to weaken as it heads into the Great Lakes
region. Again will be cold air being drawn into the region snow and
rain showers are expected. If fact continued above normal temperatures
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging will build in aloft as the surface high shifts eastward
across the region. Clouds will dominate as moisture is trapped
under a low level inversion. Cloud cover is expected to break
up at KPOU overnight and Friday morning at the other TAF sites.

A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be on
the approach and clouds will move back in Friday afternoon. This
feature will bring chance for some light precipitation to the
area by late in the day at KPOU with precipitation at the
other sites occurring after 00z/Friday.

Light to calm winds for the overnight with a light southeast to
south wind Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of DZ.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent precipitation over the past few days has allowed for
some minor rises on rivers and stream across the region. Over
the next few days, mainly dry conditions are expected through
the weekend. Some light precipitation is possible Friday evening
into Saturday morning, but QPF amounts will be a tenth of an
inch or less. Daytime temperatures will be above normal,
although overnight lows will fall around or just above freezing
for most areas. As a result, some very minor snowmelt may occur
in a few areas, but it will likely have little impact on rivers
and streams.

Widespread precipitation looks to occur early next week, but
there are still questions regarding the exact precipitation
type and amounts. The latest MMEFS don`t show any flooding on
area rivers and streams, although some river rises are likely to
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis/JVM
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11/JVM
SHORT TERM...Frugis/JVM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/JVM



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