Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 191747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST ALSO. RIDGING IS BUILDING
IN AT THE SURFACE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE ALOFT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OT MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER TIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALREADY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO
BETWEEN 825-850 MB. LOOKING AT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF. SKIES WILL
BECOME SKC BY 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS
TREND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MAINLY SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
     LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







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