Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
LATE TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT 4 AM...AS PRECIP HAS GENERALLY ENDED. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
CATSKILL ZONES...WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIP INCLUDING
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR SHOWING
UPSTREAM ECHOES. WILL REASSESS AT 6 AM TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
ADVISORY CAN BE DROPPED FOR THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY WARMED OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHER THAN OVER SCHOHARIE/EASTERN CATSKILLS...THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MANY ISSUES. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IF NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REPORTS OF FZDZ.

COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO FLOW ALOFT BEING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT AS WELL. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS
RELATIVE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE MOISTURE
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SCRAPE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS WELL...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE WILL BE A
W-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
OVER THE REGION. SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. EVEN AREAS THAT SEE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WON/T BE TOO MUCH COOLER ALOFT...SO TEMPS
WON/T CHANGE MUCH. LOWS SAT NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS ON
SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL LEVELS. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD
APPROACH FOR MONDAY...OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...WITH NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS FOR MON/TUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S...WITH TEENS AND 20S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER
WE HAVE LOST ICE IN THE CLOUDS AND ARE GETTING FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SYSTEM`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
12Z/WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS MORNING.
HIGHER LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
LOWER  AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO ONLY IMPACT KPOU WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY AFTER 06Z/THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF WITH GUSTS THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME GUSTY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOSE THEIR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARMTH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ047-058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV


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