Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 050727
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
327 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS
TODAY ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES...DROPPING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN
INTO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DRY OTHERWISE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 70S
AND LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

FAIR/COMFORTABLE WX WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING NORTH OF
AN OHIO-MISSOURI VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE AS HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
HELP MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOCALLY. AND LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING AN UNDERCUTTING SFC FRONTAL WAVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOW SHOWER CHANCES WERE
MAINTAINED GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF
CIRCULATION/DEEPER MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

DRY STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS SHOULD
CONT TO RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA THU-FRI AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. SHRTWV OVER NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE ACROSS
THE LWR OH VALLEY THU WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NRN EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING THE SRN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD PROGRESS
EAST INTO IL FRI AHEAD OF A WK BUT PSBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY/STABLE AS THIS
WKNG SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT... A FEW DIMINISHING
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA SO MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
NW. NO SGFNT CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY REMAINING SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... SFC RIDGE SHOULD CONT TO HOLD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVG OVER THE TOP OF
THE SRN PLAINS UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTION PSBLY REACHING SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA.
NEXT SRN STREAM SHRTWV A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL PHASE WITH AN UPR LOW MOVG ACROSS ONTARIO
BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR AREA
FOR THIS FCST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY DRY/COOLER WX TUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE UPR GRTLKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND LOWS IN THE
L-M60S...COOLING TO A BIT BLO NORMAL BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR/DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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