Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 082051
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
351 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
DURING ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THURSDAY MORNING ROLLS
AROUND. ARTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK DROPPING
HIGHS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

H5 LOW CNTR OVR CNTRL LK MI THIS AFTN WILL ROUND SEWD
INTO WRN LK ER BY TUE AFTN. HWVR ERN EXTENT OF INCOMING LL CAA WING
IS DELAYED UNTIL LT PD COINCIDENT W/EVENTUAL UPSTREAM BACK OF LL
FLW. THUS OVERALL LK RESPONSE TONIGHT XPCD TO BE TEPID UNTIL AFT 06Z
WHEN MOST VIGOROUS MSTR FLUX/VERTICAL ASCENT DVLPS ACRS NW CWA.
REGARDLESS INHERENT SNOW BAND DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TRANSITORY WHICH SHLD LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE
LOCALE OUTSIDE PERHAPS NE LAPORTE/WRN ST JOE. AT ANY RATE WILL FOREGO
SHRT DURATIONS HEADLINE NEED LT TONIGHT/ERLY TUE AM TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTRWS UPSTREAM MID LVL MSTR PLUME HOLDS WEST ON TUE WHILE LL THERMAL
TROUGH STEADILY GROWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT SHSN GOING
THROUGH THE DAY FAR NW HWVR INLAND REACH MUCH IN DOUBT GIVEN DEGREE
OF MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID LVL DRYSLOT AND WILL TEMPER PRIOR
GRIDDED POPS CONSIDERABLY EAST HALF. AS SUCH WILL AGAIN CONT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD AS MORE COMPELLING PERIOD
LIES BEYOND TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL COME
TOGETHER FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
A LONG FETCH OVER OPEN WATERS INCLUDING PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH WAS ONLY 4 PERCENT ICE COVERED. THIS LONG FETCH
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY LARGE DELTA T
VALUES FROM 20C TO 25C IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FAVOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NORTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ST
JOSEPH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. A
WINTER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SNOW.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BRIEFLY WITH BACKING WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT... ALLOWING
ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND ZERO OR
JUST ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CONDS XPCD THIS PD AS UPR LOW SETTLES IN ACRS THE WRN LAKES.
HWVR FAR BTR MID LVL MSTR AND INHERENT DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTN BFR SHIFTING EWD OVERNIGHT
TIMED W/LT PD INFLUX OF LL CAA. THIS WILL SPURN MORE
SIG/WIDESPREAD SHSN DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT PRIMARILY INVOF OF KSBN
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF INFLUXING LK BASED MSTR FLUX W/A PD OF IFR VSBY
RESTRICTION PSBL YET WILL HOLD A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC PER
CONFLICTING NR TERM MODEL SIGNALS AND GREATER LIKELYHOOD OF MORE
SIG LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS FORMING/HOLDING WEST OF THE TERMINAL.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


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