Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
701 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Another sunny...dry and warm day for the region with high
temperatures into the lower 80s...possibly even middle 80s west of
Route 31. The seasonably warm conditions will continue through
the remainder of the week along with increasing humidity. The
chances of showers and thunderstorms increase late tonight with
the greatest likelihood of showers and storms on Wednesday night.
Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms will then persist
into the holiday weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 436 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Narrow/well established theta-e/instabilty river from ern TX to MN
arrowhead making only slow enroads eastward due to downstream
backed/weak flow. Have again played similar trend of past several
iterations to lower/delay onset of precip to only minor mention late
tonight with increased potential that strength of ridge from Lower
Ohio Valley-Lake Superior to deflect plains shortwave well nw-n of
cwa with lengthy delay in additional piecemeal energy to eject from
southern CA vortex. Again with near full insolation today along with
maturation/eastward shunt of low level thermal plume/axis to support
lower and even possibly mid 80s far sw/w portions of cwa.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Ramping pops with instability pool over IA/IL/MO Wednesday
afternoon on order of 3000-4000 j/kg along with approach of
shortwave in deeper upstream swrly flow should
initiate/reintensify upstream convection. Timing of shortwave and
now well flattened downstream appears to favor Wed night for
greatest chances of shra/tsra at this time. As downstream
shear/instability profiles falter suspect severe risk near nil at
least with respect to this first episode. Continued blocky
nature of pattern into the holiday weekend favor persistent chance
pops per blended approach with focus on hydrological impacts and
severe potential to increase.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

An upper level ridge will remain over the area and help limit any
chances for storms. Winds should become south to southwest as the
surface high moves east. Conditions should remain VFR.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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