Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251100
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds occasionally gusting in the
afternoon are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Most locations have dipped near or below freezing early this morning
with very dry air in place. A shortwave will move across the
Southern Plains today leading to another breezy warm day for the
area. Winds should not be as strong as yesterday, but temperatures
will be slightly warmer. With dew points still very low, very high
fire danger is expected once again today. By Monday, an upper level
trough will begin to dig along the West Coast of CA. This system
will be our next big weather maker as we head into midweek. Ahead of
this storm, warmer conditions and moisture will return to the area
as southerly flow increases. Tuesday looks like the warmest day with
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. The upper storm will
slide east across the Desert SW before lifting north into the
Plains Wednesday. After some agreement in the models yesterday,
the latest runs offer more disparity. The GFS has been consistent
and continues to blast most of the area with a classic windstorm
on Wednesday. The ECMWF is slower and brings the system through
overnight Wednesday, thus a lot less wind. This system will
continue to be monitored as it has the potential to have big
impacts on our area.

A weak cold front will follow this storm system with much calmer
conditions expected to end the week. Unfortunately, rain chances
look slim to none with the current drought only expected to worsen
through the upcoming month.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air remains today with humidities dropping into the low
teens and single digits. It will become very windy in the Guadalupe
Mountains, elevating the fire weather threat but ERC values are
still high so will only issue a Fire Danger Statement for that area
today. There will be poor humidity recovery tonight but winds will
be lighter tomorrow decreasing the fire danger threat. Winds will
increase Wednesday increasing the fire danger threat once again
though with humidities only dropping into the upper teens and low
20s, do not anticipate a critical fire danger threat at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  29  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  27  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  38  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  33  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  24  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  25  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  27  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  28  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  27  70  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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