Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Cold air, low clouds and areas of freezing drizzle and freezing
fog are stubbornly hanging in across mainly portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Expecting the lower clouds
to continue tonight in these areas with slowly rising temperatures
due to the surface high slowly pushing off to the east. With
residual snow cover, it still appears that temperatures will stay
at or below freezing across the extreme western low rolling plains
and extreme eastern Permian Basin. In addition forecast soundings
are indicating that moisture should remain deep enough for areas
of freezing drizzle to continue. Will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory overnight through mid Sunday morning for the aforementioned
area as a result. Further west across the central and western
Permian Basin and Lea county New Mexico temperatures will either
rise above freezing and or the moisture depth will not be enough
for significant ice accumulations. For these areas will expire the
Winter Weather Advisory at 6 pm cst, but issue a Special Weather
Statement for overnight and mention the lighter accumulations
expected.

For Sunday will lower high temperatures considerably especially
across the plains based on the new NAM and ECMWF guidance
indicating another surge of cooler air invading from the northeast.
The cooler air will continue to push southwest into the forecast
area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will increase
again as the upper level flow backs ahead of the next Pacific
system with isentropic lift developing. Surface temperatures
may be cold enough to support a chance of freezing rain
Sunday night and early Monday across the northern Permian Basin
and Lea county New Mexico. By Monday afternoon and Monday night
temperatures should be warm enough for all liquid across west
texas and southeast New Mexico.

Precipitation chances will continue across a good chunk of
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned
system approaches. Yet another surge of colder air is expected
by Wednesday with some light snow possible. The precipitation
could continue (some snow) into Thursday if the slower ECMWF is
correct.

Beyond next Thursday guidance handles the upper level low
differently so kept dry for now with slowly moderating
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  57  30  46  /  10   0  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              30  53  31  46  /  10  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                32  62  34  56  /  10   0  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  34  61  41  58  /  10   0  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  66  37  54  /  10   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  60  34  58  /  10   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   28  55  31  44  /  10   0  30  30
MARFA TX                   28  71  33  68  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  59  34  48  /  10   0  30  30
ODESSA TX                  31  54  34  48  /  10   0  30  30
WINK TX                    34  63  36  54  /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...
     Scurry.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

29/12

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