Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds with a few afternoon gusts this TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Strong winds and blowing dust behind the cold front have subsided
this afternoon. A nice evening is in store with light winds and
temperatures falling into the 70s. Enjoy it now as very windy
conditions develop this weekend through most of next week.

Weak upper ridging builds in Friday with winds quickly returning to
the southeast and gulf moisture moving back into eastern portions of
the area. This will set up a dryline which will divide the CWA in
half by Friday afternoon. An isolated storm is possible across the
lower Trans Pecos, but think the probability is too low to mention.
West of the dryline, strong southwest flow and dry conditions are
expected to create fire weather concerns especially over SE NM and
the Guadalupe Mountains. Please see the fire wx discussion below.

A storm system will dig into the 4-corners region Saturday with
increasing southwesterly mid-level flow across our area. Models now
have this upper trough lifting into the plains much farther west
than previous runs. This will quickly push the dryline east across
the area by early afternoon with strong southwest winds and very dry
air behind it. Any storms that develop along the dryline will likely
be over the far east Permian Basin with a high fire danger taking
hold most of our area. A couple of the storms could be severe as
shear and instability increases. The stronger mid level flow will
create very windy conditions across the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday
lasting through the weekend. High wind headlines will likely be
needed for this area with a wind advisory possible for the adjacent
plains.

Sunday looks even windier across the region as the base of the upper
trough moves across the TX Panhandle. West winds will likely be
sustained over 25 mph with gusts over 35 mph across the plains.
This will likely create blowing dust over most of southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin. Dry air will already be in place so
expect yet another very high fire danger day. Monday looks
similar, but with a bit less wind. A cold front arrives Monday
night along with much cooler conditions through the end of the
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front has moved through the area with gusty northerly winds.
Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight with RH recovery fair
to good.  Critical fire weather concerns will return on Saturday.  A
fire weather watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains Friday.  Critical fire weather
conditions will become a little more widespread Saturday, and have
issued a fire weather watch for the western half of the forecast
area.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Saturday with
dry and even windier conditions expected Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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