Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 270535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cluster of thunderstorms will affect KCNM within the first hour
or two of the forecast period tonight. Erratic, gusty winds are
expected, along with the potential for brief MVFR visibility in
heavy rain. HOB may also be affected, however, confidence is too
low to include mention at this time. The other concern is
potential MVFR ceilings around daybreak, mainly for CNM/HOB/MAF,
though low confidence precludes mention. These trends will be
monitored/amended as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail, with E/SE winds around 12kt or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

There is an upper ridge over the southwest part of the country with
an upper trough over the Great Lakes area. This upper pattern has
put the CWA under northwest flow aloft. SPC has put the area in a
marginal risk of severe weather for today. CAPE values are expected
to be 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear values will
generally be 25 to 30 kts. However, mid-level lapse rates will
struggle to get up to 7 degrees C/km. A couple of shortwaves are
expected to move over the area providing enhanced upper lift. These
conditions will be enough for a few storms to possibly become strong
to severe. Convection is expected to redevelop this afternoon and
may continue into tonight. Due to the recent heavy rains across
portions of the area, additional rainfall in these same areas may
lead to flash flooding. The surface high is closer to the area so
temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday.

The surface high moves to east Texas on Tuesday with weak upper
ridging over the southwest part of the country.  Northwest flow
aloft will continue but surface winds will become southeasterly.
This will allow for a plentiful supply of low level moisture across
the area with a chance of storms mainly across the higher terrain.
This pattern will lead to a slight warm up of temperatures on
Tuesday with most places having highs in the 90s. There won`t be
much change in the upper pattern on Wednesday with northwest flow
aloft again expected over the area. The NAM12 is showing a dryline
across the area with convection across the Davis Mountains.
Temperatures will continue to warm up on Wednesday with highs mostly
in the upper 90s to triple digits. The NAM12 shows the dryline
across the far eastern CWA on Thursday with westerly winds behind
it. These downsloping westerly winds will result in temperatures
heating up into the triple digits across most of the CWA. Any
convection on this day will remain confined to the eastern CWA where
there is more moisture. An upper trough will move over the Northern
Plains on Friday sending a weak cold front into western portions of
the CWA resulting in slightly cooler temperatures across some areas
for Friday. Weak upper ridging remains across the region through
this weekend with westerly flow aloft. It is possible isolated
storms could develop during the afternoon hours as a shortwave moves
over the area. Expect temperatures to be cooler with highs mostly in
the 90s with the exception of locations along the Pecos and Rio
Grande Rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  99  73 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       97  69 103  68 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         91  71  99  72 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  69  99  72 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  67  95  69 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          92  67  97  67 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          86  61  93  62 /  30  20  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  97  73 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  70  97  73 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           95  70 102  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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