Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 191936
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014
Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.
Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin. A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred. However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z. The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery. Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating. Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen. Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight. Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.
The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west. Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region. In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday. Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 67 77 66 77 / 70 70 60 60
BIG SPRING TX 69 81 69 82 / 60 70 60 50
CARLSBAD NM 66 83 67 78 / 60 40 60 60
DRYDEN TX 74 93 75 91 / 30 30 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 86 67 80 / 60 30 30 50
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 77 61 76 / 50 20 50 50
HOBBS NM 64 78 64 78 / 70 50 60 60
MARFA TX 62 82 61 78 / 30 30 40 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 80 67 80 / 60 70 60 50
ODESSA TX 68 80 67 80 / 60 70 60 50
WINK TX 69 82 68 84 / 60 40 60 60
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Check us out on the internet at: