Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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391
FXUS62 KMFL 221146
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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