Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 181124 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
724 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will be northeast today into tonight, as the wind speeds
will be around 10 knots today decreasing to 5 knots or less
tonight. Scattered showers will be possible today over the taf
sites. There could be a thunderstorm this afternoon, but the
coverage will be few and far between. Therefore, VCSH will be the
rule in the taf sites today. The ceiling and vis will remain in
VFR conditions today, but could fall down into MVFR conditions
with the passage of the showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper level trough is moving offshore of the US East Coast
today. The associated surface cold front will push through south
Florida this morning before stalling out over the area through tonight.
The front will not bring any significant change in temperatures
to South Florida but it will bring increased moisture for today.
Expect abundant shower activity today, especially over the
southern and eastern portions of South Florida. The highest PWATs
associated with the frontal boundary should be far south enough by
Thursday... over the Keys and the Florida Straits... so that
drier conditions will be likely for Thursday-Friday. There should
be enough lingering moisture those days so that there will still
be some showers.

Late this week, high pressure will be building in across the SE US.
The pressure gradient will be tighter across South FL Friday into
the weekend, bringing breezy NE to ENE winds to the area. Some
showers will be possible each day through the weekend. The high
pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area early next week
as a disturbance and deep trough move eastward across the US.
In response to the approaching trough, winds will turn to
southeasterly and southerly early next week with moisture likely
increasing across South FL.

MARINE...
Winds from the NE can be expected for the next few days, with
winds increasing to 20 kts on Friday. Winds will become more
easterly later in the weekend but will remain breezy through the
weekend. Seas in the Atlantic waters will be up to 5 to 7 feet for
the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend.

AVIATION...
Showers remain possible through the period with a frontal
boundary stalled across the region. Afternoon thunderstorms will
again be possible, mainly inland of the terminals. Overnight light
wind will pick up after sunrise as the sea breezes attempt to
develop and push inland. Wind should become lighter again after
sunset, though some showers may linger.

BEACH FORECAST...
With increasing NE-ENE winds later this week corresponding with
high astronomical tides, water levels may approach coastal flood
advisory criteria later this week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  75  87  78 /  60  50  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  86  76  87  78 /  60  40  40  40
Miami            87  75  89  77 /  50  40  30  40
Naples           87  72  90  74 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...98/ABH
MARINE...98/ABH
AVIATION...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...98/ABH






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