Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 201714 AAC
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1214 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
High pressure will keep the easterly winds over all of the taf sites
through Sunday morning. The wind speeds will be 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon decreasing to less than 5 knots tonight before
increasing again to around 10 knots on Sunday. Dry weather will
remain over the taf sites along with VFR conditions in the ceiling
and vis.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 920 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018/

UPDATE...
High pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States
today keeping an easterly wind flow over South Florida along with
dry weather. However, the easterly wind flow will also allow for
some low level moisture to work into the area from the Atlantic
waters allowing for more of a partly to mostly cloudy skies across
the area today. The current forecast shows this and there is no
reason to change the forecast at this time.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018/

AVIATION...
The weather will remain dry across all of the Taf sites today
with easterly wind flow of 5 to 10 knots, as high pressure remains
over the southeastern United States. The ceiling and vis will
also remain in the VFR conditions today at all of the taf sites.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The ECMWF and the GFS are in fairly good agreement with the
overall pattern for the next week. The weather will be dominated
by high pressure to the north for this weekend. This will keep the
wind generally easterly through the beginning of next week. The
models also keep South Florida dry this weekend, with a slight
chance of showers beginning to creep back into the forecast for
the mainland on Monday. This pattern calls for a continued gradual
warm up for the next few days.

Models then have a weak cold front moving into the area. this
front is associated with a low that is progged to track from the
central plains to the northeast, reaching the great lakes region
Tuesday morning. The models do disagree with how much impact the
front will have on South Florida, mainly in the for of rain. They
both have the main low and a 500mb low quickly moving off to the
northeast, away form the area. They both have the front making its
way into the region sometime Tuesday, perhaps Tuesday evening,
with the ECMWF a few hours quicker than the GFS. They both have
the front stalling over the area, and bringing a increase in the
chances of rain. Models are currently suggesting the front may
stall just to the south of the area, over the Florida Straits.The
ECMWF is much more robust in the precipitation coverage along the
front, whereas the GFS wants to dry the front out before it
reaches South Florida. Either way, it does bring the possibility
of showers to the area, beginning Monday, and then better chances
on Tuesday.

With the front stalled in the vicinity, the forecast keeps the
mention of rain in the forecast for the remainder of next week. By
the end of the week, a 500mb ridge builds off the eastern sea
board. This puts a strong surface high over the mid-Atlantic
states for the end of the week. this will help to increase the
pressure gradient across the area, causing the wind to pick up out
of the east, with the Atlantic coastal areas possibly seeing
sustained wind around 20 to 25 kts, with 25 to possibly 30 kts
over the Atlantic waters. This would also make for breezy
conditions across the mainland areas, with 10 to 15 kts sustained
across to the Gulf coast. Models are indicating a low pressure
system will form over the northern Gulf, bringing better rain
chances for the next weekend.

So, in general dry this weekend and a gradual warm up. Then,
increasing chances of rain beginning on Monday, with a weak cold
front moving into the area, and stalling by Tuesday night. This
will keep a mention of possible showers in the forecast for the
remainder of next week. The end of the week may see breezy
conditions, particularly for the Atlantic waters, and the adjacent
coast.

MARINE...
The high pressure area to the north is forecast to keep the wind
generally out of the east, allowing seas to gradually subside as
the northerly component erodes. However, the wind is forecast to
fluctuate in strength over the weekend, causing periods of
possibly hazardous conditions for small craft across the Atlantic
waters. In general, small craft should exercise caution this
weekend when boating in the Atlantic waters of South Florida. This
easterly wind will also bring the risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic coast beaches, with a moderate risk today and possibly
borderline moderate to high on Sunday, mainly a higher risk for
the South Beach area.

As a cold front stalls over the area by Tuesday night, there is
a chance of showers for most of next week across the South Florida
waters. By Friday, the wind is forecast to increase, possibly bringing
hazardous marine conditions as the wind speed is currently
forecast to be between 20 and 30 kts across the Atlantic waters
and 20 to 25 kts in the offshore Gulf. This would generate seas of
around 8 to 10 ft in the Atlantic and around 5 ft in the offshore
Gulf.

AVIATION...
Light and variable winds will continue through early this morning
with SCT/BKN low clouds with bases around 4000 FT MSL. Aft
20/1500Z, easterly winds will increase to around 10 KT, then
diminish early in the evening. Not expecting any precipitation
today, with a just a few passing low clouds.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  63  75  67 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  64  76  66 /  10  10  10   0
Miami            75  65  78  68 /  10  10  10   0
Naples           73  58  79  59 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...54/BNB
DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...54/BNB


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