Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 170026
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
826 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

SUBTLE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PER SPC MESOANALYSIS,
COMBINED WITH PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FL, HAS PRODUCED CURRENT LINE OF STORMS INVADING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MUCH OF THIS AREA WAS UNTOUCHED BY STORMS EARLIER
TODAY, SO THERE`S PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FEED.
CONVECTION MAY ALSO EXPAND INTO COLLIER COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE HRRR, WHICH DID VERY WELL PREDICTING THIS LINE EARLIER
TODAY, IS SKETCHY WITH REGARDS TO THIS DEVELOPMENT SURVIVING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE. CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY WAS VERY ACTIVE
TODAY, SO WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO FALTER EVENTUALLY WITH
INSTABILITY WANING DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTION SLIDING SE
OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY REFIRING SOME STORMS NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST
AND WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THUS, INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN`T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK AND BECOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND NOON. IF LATEST GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...TEMPO GROUPS MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED IN LATER ISSUANCES. NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME WSW AT 10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE MAY CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WIND FLOW TO BACK FROM A NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE BRINGING THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW...AND ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

BOTH MODELS HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE
THIS WEEK AND MOVING IT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP
TO DRIVE THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING IT OUT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SO THE SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK KEEPING
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND...AS A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVES
WEST NORTHWEST AND CLIPS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP KEEP THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE OVER BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THIS
WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AT
2 FEET OR LESS...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE PALM BEACH ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  73  90 /  30  70  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  89  76  89 /  20  60  40  50
MIAMI            76  88  75  90 /  20  50  40  50
NAPLES           76  86  75  89 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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