Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 012335
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



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