Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 301123 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will be light and variable this morning at all the
South Florida taf sites, before going easterly around 10 knots
along the east coast taf sites and westerly around 10 knots at
KAPF taf site this afternoon. The weather will remain dry this
morning before introducing VCSH for the afternoon hours, as the
sea breezes develop and push inland. The threat of thunder looks
to be over the interior areas of South Florida this afternoon.
The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions at all of the
South Florida taf sites today.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
A typical early-summer weather pattern of warm and humid
conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over
the interior will continue through the week.

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Modest northwest flow overnight, possibly result of subtle low-
level trough offshore Atlantic waters, has provided enough
convergence to induce isolated showers and a rogue thunderstorm
or two along Broward County coastline. Otherwise, dry conditions
have prevailed. Expect little change in weather pattern through
the short term, as weak troughing over the region will enhance
overall lift slightly, to allow for convective initiation along
both coasts` sea breezes during the afternoon, mainly over
interior areas. Guidance suggests great coverage today, with
likely POPs in place over interior areas, then gradually lower
thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday, as slightly drier air
filters in and trough becomes more diffuse. Can`t rule out some
strong wind gusts, but primary hazard through the next few days
will be cloud- to- ground lightning.

Winds will be light and generally east through the period, but
persistent presence of rip currents over last few days warrants
moderate risk today along Palm Beach county coastline.

Temperatures will be near/just above normal, with maxima in upper
80s to low 90s and minima in the 70s.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Moistening trend begins Thursday and continues into the weekend as
deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with northwestern Gulf
mid and upper-level low pressure advects tropical moisture from
Caribbean into the region. This will lead to increasing
thunderstorm chances, although through the end of the workweek,
convection will continue to focus over the interior. By Saturday
and Sunday, low-level flow with be southerly with less in the way
of sea-breeze, which should me a boost for coastal areas rain
chances.

AVIATION...
At 2AM EDT radar data was showing a line of showers developing
over the Palm Beach offshore waters. Movement is very slow
towards the west, but at this time seems like these cells won`t
reach the coastline and affect PBI, FXE or FLL through the next
few hours. Otherwise, VFR prevails over all the terminals and
should continue until the afternoon hours when periods of VCSH and
lowering cigs are expected. Winds will be mainly from the east
today, except over APF where sea breezes will shift winds to a
more westerly flow this afternoon. VFR and light winds will again
prevail tonight.

MARINE...
East wind less than 10 knots will prevail through the week. The
only hazardous seas and winds will be confined in and near
thunderstorms, which are most likely over Lake Okeechobee during
the afternoons, but also may impact nearshore Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  74  87  75 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  75  88  76 /  30  10  20  10
Miami            88  75  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
Naples           89  72  89  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB



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