Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 161810
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
110 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...

Moderate easterly winds continue to prevail with widely dispersed
isolated showers across the Atlantic waters and portions of the
peninsula. With streamers continuing to form across the Bahamas
Islands, will allow VCSH for all South Florida terminals through
00z. With additional streamers possible this evening at least,
assigned VCSH all Atlantic coast terminals at 00z. Although a
brief passing shower is possible, mainly VFR conditions expected
with caveat that very brief MVFR conditions may be possible with
impact of showers.

60/BD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1131 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

UPDATE...

Low level capped inversion continues to be prominent in the 12z
sounding, with most of the moisture trapped in the lower levels
and easterly flow dominating through the lower levels. Recent
radar returns indicate widely dispersed showers across the
northern interior sections of South Florida and isolated showers
across the Atlantic waters. Updated the short term forecast to
reflect these conditions. Otherwise, no other changes required to
current forecast package.

60/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

AVIATION...
For the short term: passing showers expected to impact KFXE for a
few hours starting around 12z, with very brief MVFR conditions
possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR flying conditions will prevail
through the TAF period ending 12z Tuesday. VCSH will be possible
at KPBI, KFLL KOPF and KMIA through 15z with some streamer showers
this morning, otherwise dry conditions expected. Easterly flow
will be around 15 knots for much of the period, decreasing to
around 10 knots late in the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /Martin Luther King Jr Day through Wednesday/
Warm overnight across South Florida with east coast areas holding
in the low 70s. Persistent onshore flow has allowed periodic
streams from Bahamas to push into mainly Broward County, and this
trend is continuing early this morning. Still expect slightly
drier air to force these showers to dissipate as the day wears on.

Overall synoptic pattern is pretty simple through the short term
(and long term, for that matter), as deep-layer high pressure will
continue to dominate the region. The result will be mainly dry
conditions with above normal temperatures. Sunday, Miami tied a
daily record high maximum of 83F and Fort Lauderdale set a daily record
high minimum of 73F. Additional record high minima are possible
today but think high temperatures will not threaten records. Winds
will become southeasterly Tuesday and Wednesday, and diminish in
velocity. With the lighter winds, cant rule out some patchy fog
over northwest interior tonight, with perhaps a better risk for
fog over a larger portion of the interior Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/
Ridging pattern over the SE CONUS will flatten as several
shortwave troughs pass through the OH/TN valleys. Rain chances
will remain north of the region, and there will be little/no
change in South Florida weather through the weekend. Maxima will
generally be around 80 degrees with minima in the 60s. Winds will
become more southerly in nature late weekend, possibly becoming
southwesterly for the weekend.

MARINE...
Breezy easterly winds expected on Atlantic waters this Martin
Luther King Jr. Day, where small craft operators should exercise
caution. Winds will diminish slightly Tuesday and turn more
southeasterly. The remainder of the week looks to have benign
marine conditions with seas less than 4 feet and south wind below
10 knots.

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period ending
06z Tuesday. Generally dry conditions are expected, but an
occasional brief light shower may occur from time to time at the
east coast sites through much of the period having minimal
impacts. Winds will continue to be easterly around 10 knots
overnight, increasing to around 15 knots after 14z.

BEACH FORECAST...
High risk of rip currents along Atlantic beaches continues through
tonight. A moderate or possibly high risk is expected Tuesday,
before improving conditions are expected for the latter half of
the week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  68  81  64  81 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  70  80  67  79 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            69  80  67  81 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           62  81  62  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&




AVIATION...60/BD







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