Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 240804
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A trough of low pressure located over the Central United States
will continue to deepen and move east into the Eastern United
States by Thursday. This will push a stationary front over the
Southeastern United States Southward down the Florida Peninsula
today, before moving slowly through South Florida on Thursday.

The winds today into tonight will be breezy to windy from the
southwest bringing in deep tropical moisture into South Florida.
Therefore, the pops will be on an increase through today and by
tonight be in the likely to occasional range over South Florida.

There will also be a mid to upper level jet of 100 to 130 knots
along with a low level jet of 50 knots moving around the base of
the trough through Northern/Central portions of South Florida this
afternoon into tonight. The 500 mb temps will also cool down to
around -10C over the northern areas to -9C over the southern areas
of South Florida tonight. These conditions will allow for some of
the thunderstorms over South Florida to become strong to even
severe especially tonight. The primary impacts with the strong to
severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds, hail, and heavy
rainfall, but there could be an isolated tornado.

The deeper moisture over South Florida will slowly shift southward
into the Florida Keys on Thursday as the cold front moves slowly
southward through South Florida. Therefore, the likely to
occasional pops will continue into Thursday morning, before
decreasing to chance pops late Thursday afternoon. The threat of
thunderstorms will also continue through Thursday morning before
decreasing over South Florida Thursday afternoon.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
High pressure will build into South Florida this Memorial Day
Weekend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the wind flow
to become mostly light over South Florida, and allow for the sea
breezes to develop each day and push inland. This will allow for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze each
afternoon affecting mainly the interior areas of South Florida,
while the metro areas should remain mostly dry.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
The high will move east into the western Atlantic waters early
next week allowing for an easterly wind flow to set up over South
Florida. Therefore, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
early next week will be over the interior and west coast metro
areas each afternoon with only a slight chance over the east coast
metro areas.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds will be southwesterly today into Thursday with speeds
increasing to around 20 knots late this afternoon into tonight.
The speeds will then slowly decrease to around 15 knots by
Thursday afternoon. The winds will then light and variable this
Memorial Day Weekend over South Florida waters. The seas will be
on an increase to around 6 feet in the Gulf Stream Waters this
afternoon into tonight, before decreasing to 2 feet or less by
Memorial Day Weekend. The offshore Gulf waters will also be on an
increase to around 7 feet by tonight before slowly decreasing to 2
feet or less by this Memorial Day weekend. Therefore, an SCA has
been issued for all of South Florida waters for today into
tonight.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
The southwest breezy to windy winds today will lead to a moderate
risk of rip currents along the west coast beaches of South
Florida, while the east coast beaches of South Florida will remain
low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The relative humidity will remain well above the critical values
today into Thursday over South Florida due to the deep tropical
moisture in place. However, the dispersion index readings will be
in the lower 100`s today due to the breezy to windy southwest
winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The east coast metro areas will be getting close to the record
highs for today which are:

            05/24/17        05/24/17
Cities   forecast highs   record highs
MIA           93           94 - 2013
FLL           93           94 - 1951
PBI           94           96 - 1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  94  76  88  72 /  50  80  80  20
Fort Lauderdale  93  77  88  75 /  50  70  80  20
Miami            93  78  89  76 /  50  70  70  20
Naples           85  77  85  72 /  60  90  80  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

DISCUSSION...54/BNB
MARINE...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB
FIRE WEATHER...54/BNB
CLIMATE...54/BNB



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