Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 302117
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
317 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

...Slow moving storms with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate generally weak flow aloft across the state with upper level
ridging building across the Great Basin as an old upper circulation
continues to shear out as it is translating across southeastern
Colorado at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating a
faint circulation moving into the northern front range at this time.
SPC meso analysis indicating CAPE values running from around 500 to
1500 J/KG across the area, with the best values across the lower
Arkansas River value with dewpoints in the mid 50s at LAA and LHX at
this time. Flow aloft remains weak with RUC inditing H5 winds out of
the west to southwest around 5 kts across most of south central and
southeast Colorado. Regional radars indicating isolated to scattered
showers and storms across the higher terrain, especially from the
Central Mts north and east to the northern Front Range, with the
best cluster of storms along a weak surface boundary from the Palmer
Dvd east to south of Limon.

Tonight and Wednesday...Models remain in decent agreement of old
circulation continuing to weaken and lift north and east into the
Central High Plains as upper ridging continues to build into the
State. Latest high res models indicating best convection to continue
to be across the Central Mts through the northern portions of the
Pikes Peak region and into the northern Front range, associated with
the minor circulation lifting north and east this evening, along
with the convergence zone across northeastern El Paso county into
Lincoln county. Storms that do develop will move slowly supporting
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding, especially over areas that received abundant precipitation
over the past few days. Outflow boundaries from storms could help to
ignite more convection through the evening hours and with that said,
will keep scattered pops intact across the most of the higher
terrain and plains through the late afternoon and evening. Pops to
decrease from west to east through the late evening and overnight
hours, though will keep slight pops across the far se plains into
tomorrow morning.

Models continue to indicate slight drying and subsidence across the
area as upper high continues to build across the central Rockies.
Still enough moisture to work with late summer sunshine to support
convection for areas over and near the higher terrain, with weak
north to northeast flow aloft keeping best pops west of the I-25
corridor. Locally heavy rain to remain the main threat from these
storms. Further east, models indicating potential for stronger
storms with weak easterly upslope flow keeping dew pts in the 50s,
however soundings indicating some warming aloft helping to keep a
weak cap in place.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Continued feed of monsoon moisture with weak embedded
disturbances in southerly flow will keep thunderstorms in the
forecast through Friday...with best chances over and near the
mountains each day. Main threats with thunderstorms will be
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. This will maintain the
potential for localized flash flooding on area burn scars. As
flow aloft increases ahead of a pacific trof moving inland by late
week...deep layer shears increase at the same time south to
southeast low level flow on the plains advects higher dew points
into eastern sections of the area. So a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible as the week progresses...particularly
across the far east plains. Temperatures will gradually warm
through the period with temperatures returning to near to slightly
above normal by Friday.

Upper trof moves inland over the weekend into early next week which
brings drier air and increasing southwest winds to the area.
Thunderstorms chances will decrease especially for Sunday and Monday
as temperatures rebound to above normal readings.  Models now hold
off on the next potential cold front until Tuesday across the
plains...but there is still some disagreement between the GFS and
the EC on how far south this front will progress.  This could bring
another upswing in thunderstorm chances to the southeast mts and
plains on Tuesday as low level moisture returns in easterly upslope
flow. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours, with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected
through the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will be most
numerous over and near the higher terrain with best chances of
storms affecting TAF sites at COS. Brief MVFR to local IFR
conditions will be possible with locally heavy rain...gusty winds
to 40 mph and small hail with storms.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW



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