Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Post frontal cloud cover has developed on the south side of the
Palmer Divide as low level winds have shifted briefly southeasterly.
Models show these dissipating over the next 3-5 hours with mostly
clear skies expected overnight. This should allow for a cold night
as compared to last nights, with low temperatures dropping into the
upper 20s/lower 30s for the lower elevations, with mainly 20s and
teens for the high mountains and valleys.

The western U.S. upper ridge will nudge eastward on Tuesday which
will decrease winds aloft over the mountains.  Breeziest winds will
likely be across the far southeast plains Tuesday afternoon where a
few gusts to 25-30 mph will be possible.  This could yield some near
critical fire weather conditions, but with the cooler temperatures
this should keep RHs just shy of criteria.  Otherwise, temperatures
on Tuesday will be near normal out west and below normal across the
plains. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Primary longer term meteorological focus will be on amount of
impact system provides the forecast district from Thursday into

Outside of the Thursday into Friday time-frame, the main
meteorological focus will be temperatures, nil to low grade pops,
localized elevated fire weather concerns as well as gusty winds
at times.

Initially, dry conditions in combination with above seasonal late
October temperatures are expected from Tuesday night into
Wednesday night as dry northwesterly upper flow continues over the
forecast district. Localized elevated fire conditions will be
possible Wednesday, however at this time, confidence in coverage
and duration not high enough to issue fire weather highlights at
this time.

Then, recent forecast model soundings, computer simulations and
PV/Precipitable Water analysis indicate that upper disturbances in
combination with a northerly surface surge driven by a 1035 MB
surface high will produce unsettled conditions(including the
potential for some accumulating primarily higher terrain snow as
well as cooler/colder meteorological conditions over the forecast
district from Thursday into Friday). As always, WFO Pueblo will
closely monitor the track and strength of this system closely.

A return to drier and warmer conditions over the forecast district
is then anticipated from the weekend into next Monday as dry
north to northwesterly upper flow in combination eastern Colorado
surface lee-side troughing develops.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential for stronger
winds over the CWA(favoring eastern sections) during the longer
term should be experienced from later Wednesday into Saturday

Finally, warmest temperatures should be noted Wednesday, while
coolest readings should be realized Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds should
remain nly at all terminals overnight and through the morning on
Tue, then surface gradient relaxes enough to allow a brief
appearance of se upslope near KPUB after 20z.




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