Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...MARGINAL
SEVERE POSSIBLE ON PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

DRIER AIR NOTED OVER PLAINS AS DWPTS OVER FAR EC COLO IN THE
30S...WITH U40S/50S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MTNS MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH MUCH RICHER MOISTURE SW OF THE FCST AREA. AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE CONTDVD EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TRRN. A FEW ISOLD
POPS WERE NOTED OVER FAR N EL PASO COUNTY. A FEW CG FLASHES WERE
NOTED WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE INTENSE
LTG ACTIVITY WAS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BACK INTO E UTAH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS. MOST OF THE PRGD HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE IN NWS GJT AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...BUT SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE IT OVER
THE DIVIDE. WILL WAIT TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECIDE IF A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED. PROS FOR A WATCH IS MODEL FCST...BUT WE (NWS
PUB) REALLY HAVE NOT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS REGION SO SOILS
ARE NOT ALL THAT SATURATED.

18Z NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING LOTS OF PRECIP OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK
REGION BUT I AM DISCOUNTING THIS DUE TO ITS POOR PERFORMANCE THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. RAP GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT DRIER. GFS ALSO ALOT
DRIER PIKES PEAK REGION.

OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...I DONT THINK THE PLAINS WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE...AND ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT
GIVEN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

TOMORROW....

TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN COLORADO DURING PRIME HEATING AND WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD BUT CAPE LOOKS
MARGINAL SO SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. QUITE A FEW CLOUDS MAY BE
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND THAT COULD LIMIT HEATING.

MOUNTAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS WY AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS MON EVE...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END TO PCPN FROM WEST TO
EAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR E PLAINS...THEN COME TO AN END EARLY TUE MORN ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR SE CORNER AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE S SANGRES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL START TO DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...WHICH IN TURN INCREASES
POPS FOR THE MTS AND WESTERN AREAS FROM THU AFTN ONWARD. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH FRI...THOUGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN ON SAT...THROUGH THE
EC IS JUST A BIT SLOWER. THE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUN...WHICH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD COLORADO.
THE EC HAS THIS LOW OVER NV...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS LOW EDGING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO...SO STILL SOME ROOM FOR
NEGOTIATION THERE. END RESULT IS THAT A COOLER PERIOD WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PCPN COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE FINER
POINTS AND TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

KCOS...MAIN CONCERN IS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LOW CIGS INTO THE TAF SITE. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE
OF BKN CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITE EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.

KPUB...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24H. COULD SEE SOME LOW CIGS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

KALS...COULD SEE SCTD SHOWERS WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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