Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 311510
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
A weak surface boundary is the focus of convection across southern
Oklahoma this morning. This broken line of thunderstorms to
possibly make it to McCurtain County and adjacent counties in
Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas by early afternoon.
Otherwise, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
across the region with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Current forecast is on track, no updates at this time. /05/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 739 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
For the 31/12Z terminals the early morning MVFR/IFR flight
category sites will be lifting and becoming VFR by 31/15Z with
all the ArkLaTex terminal remaining VFR until affected by showers
and thunderstorms into the late afternoon and overnight. Expecting
MVFR/IFR to return after 01/08Z-01/10Z for most sites. Surface
winds will be light and variable to light south around 5-8 knots.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
Unsettled weather pattern continues across the srn CONUS
characterized by weak swly flow aloft and a very warm and moist
airmass in place at the surface. Shwrs and tstms will remain
possible,as very little change is expected over the next couple
As we move into the second half of the work week, closed upper low
currently over nrn Mexico/srn AZ will shift ewd into TX and bring
greater chances for rain for Thursday through much of the weekend.
The trof is expected to finally push e of the region along with a
cold front by late Sunday night, which will give us a little break
from the daily rainfall and humid conditions.
The weak flow aloft and the very slow progression of the upper
features will likely preclude the risk for any severe storms,
although one or two cannot be ruled out entirely. All said and
done, it appears that we can expect a good widespread one to
three inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible.
Much of this should fall during Friday when the upper low becomes
centered over central TX. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1133 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
Cluster of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms were
affecting ktxk tonight, with the activity gradually moving to the
Northeast. Do not expect this precipitation activity to remain
there all night given its` slow Northeastward translation, but
additional development is not out of the question. Will therefore
hold on to -SHRA VCTS for several more hours. Otherwise, once the
showers finally dissipates/exits the region, another round of VFR
to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible overnight. /29/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 70 86 70 / 20 30 40 60
MLU 89 70 87 71 / 20 20 30 40
DEQ 84 67 82 67 / 30 50 70 60
TXK 87 68 82 68 / 30 40 60 60
ELD 89 69 84 69 / 30 30 40 60
TYR 86 69 83 68 / 20 40 70 60
GGG 87 69 84 69 / 20 40 60 60
LFK 87 70 85 70 / 20 20 50 60