Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 192147
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
347 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cirrus is on the increase with a mid level ridge on the backside
of the sfc ridge axis. This flare up of high clouds is running out
ahead of a vort over New Mexico seen now on Water vapor.
Difficult to say how much more will materialize overnight, but
if thick enough, these clouds may keep temperatures up above
current forecast and even some of the frost formation expected.
However, we will leave well enough alone for now with surface high
still weakening in place over Central TX and W AR. Our second
cold night temps are close to guidance and considering dew points
it will chill quickly after sunset.

The work week starts off chilly with highs again tomorrow looking
to be a bit below average. A brief warm-up on Tuesday will be
quickly followed by another large airmass which is still due to
arrive early Wednesday at 1032mb. So this will keep the fall run
going into Thanksgiving Day and then we will moderate to back
above average for Friday and early next weekend. A weaker air
mass at 1026mb will build in on Sunday and nip the warm-up in the
bud. These next two cold fronts will have little if any moisture,
but early next week that looks to change with a better return
flow will setting up to close out the dry month. Meanwhile, our
drought conditions will continue to fester in the weak La Nina
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 19/18Z TAF period. Will
see an increase in thin cirrus from the W this afternoon/evening,
before it begins to thicken up overnight through Monday behind
the upper trough as it shifts E into the SE CONUS, but ahead of a
developing shortwave that will move into the Srn Plains. Sfc
ridging present attm over much of TX/OK will also continue to
shift E into the region later this afternoon and remain in place
overnight, resulting in N winds 6-10kts this afternoon becoming
calm or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  63  44  67 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  32  60  37  67 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  30  63  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  34  62  43  65 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  60  37  65 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  37  65  47  68 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  35  64  45  69 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  36  65  45  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/15



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