Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161059
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM MID LVL VFR CLOUD DECKS. LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF MODERATE
SHOWERS. ISOLD AFTN TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BUT
MOSTLY A SCATTERING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED BY 17/00Z.
WINDS TO REMAIN VRB TO NEAR 5 KTS FROM THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








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