Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 020937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
437 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO AR AND
INTO ECNTRL TX THIS MORNING...WITH THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE E INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND TN VALLEY AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO A MORE SERLY COMPONENT ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
DEPARTS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ONE MORE DAY OF LOW RH/S IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR IF SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES NEAR THE AMBIENT TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER W TX AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ONE WEAKNESS ROUNDING ATOP THE
RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX/SW OK SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS JUST W OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
COULD INFLUENCE THE NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON TEMPS. ONE MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOWER RH/S...BEFORE THE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN N AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND SPREAD N TO AT LEAST
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THUS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD BREAK THE CENTURY MARK
ONCE AGAIN AS AMBIENT AIR TEMPS NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS AS WELL...WITH
MUGGIER CONDITIONS /AND INCREASINGLY MORE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES/
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO RETREAT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER A TAD FARTHER W
TUESDAY INTO NRN OLD MX AND AZ/NM...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
SHIFT SE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO
MO/AR. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING SW OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE POSSIBLY ADVANCING N
AND AFFECTING THE SRN TIER OF PARISHES IN NCNTRL LA. A SIMILAR SETUP
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS WELL...AS THE WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERS OVER SE
OK/SW AR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO BUILD BACK E
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENESSES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NRN
AND ERN ZONES ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STRONGER TROUGHING ALOFT DIVING SE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SHOULD HELP NUDGE A WEAK SFC FRONT S
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...BUT STRONG HEATING/INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING GENERALLY
ALONG AND N OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SPREADING S CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE THE FRONT
NUDGES FARTHER S. THERE IS GENERAL CONSCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE FRONT GRADUALLY BACKDOORING FARTHER SW BY LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY INTO ECNTRL TX...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING
FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
SPILL SW BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO WORSEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST GIVEN THE
CONTINUED /NEAR/ TRIPLE DIGIT AND LACK OF RAIN...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
HAVING NOT SEEN MEASUREABLE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/WRN LA GOING
ON A MONTH NOW.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  71 100  76 /   0   0   5   0
MLU  97  69  99  73 /   0   0   5   0
DEQ  97  66  98  71 /   0   0   5   0
TXK  97  69  98  74 /   0   0   5   0
ELD  97  67  99  72 /   0   0   5   0
TYR  99  73 100  76 /   0   0   5   0
GGG  99  70 100  76 /   0   0   5   0
LFK  98  69  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.