Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AT TYR...BUT IFR/LIFR MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE WITH A COLD FRONT
NOW TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC WINDS N/NW AROUND 5KTS...NW FLOW TO ONLY
3KFT...THEN BACKING TO SW AND INCREASING SPEED ON ASCENT...100KTS
BY FL280. FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 9KFT AND ICING LIKLEY WITH
DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE PROFILE AS UPPER STORM OVER SW TX HAS A
FOCUS OF SW WET FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. OUR CIGS MAY RISE A
BIT WHEN RA EXITS AROUND 18Z...BUT FORECAST TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...OUR FCST MUCH IMPROVED DURING MIDDAY MONDAY.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR...ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CCA...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS ONLY IN 40S AREA WIDE.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...
AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ON
MONDAY...A MASSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...SETTLING OVER OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE FOUR STATE COLD THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVEN WITH
PLENTY SUNSHINE. ON THURSDAY...A CLOSED LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BACK TO
THIS REGION. WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...
EXPECT SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN. HOPEFULLY THE
ARCTIC HIGH BECOMES MODIFIED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY THE THE ONSET OF RAIN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO RESOLVED IN
THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WIND AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.
THE RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ENDING ALL
AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  36  54  35  50 /  70  10  10   0   0
MLU  47  38  52  36  50 /  80  50  10   0   0
DEQ  46  29  51  31  45 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  44  33  50  32  48 /  40  10   0   0   0
ELD  44  33  50  32  49 /  60  10  10   0   0
TYR  46  32  56  36  47 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  46  32  54  36  49 /  60  10  10   0   0
LFK  46  36  57  38  53 /  70  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14




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