952
FXUS61 KALY 090542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
142 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase tonight as another upper shortwave and
associated surface low approach from the west. A period of light
to moderate rain will push across the region overnight through
tomorrow morning, with more scattered showers and below-normal
temperatures lingering Sunday afternoon and again on Monday as
upper troughing remains overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 140 AM EDT, spotty sprinkles have been
occurring near and just south of I-90. Meanwhile, area of steady
rain continues to translate east across western and central
NYS, and will be entering the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley over the next 1-2 hours. Expect widespread rain, some
moderate in intensity, to be occurring for most areas along and
north of I-90 by daybreak, with occasional rain extending as far
south as I-84 shortly thereafter.

Temps will cool off once rain develops and wet bulb effects
occur, with min temps around daybreak mainly in the lower/mid
50s, except for some 40s across portions of the SW Adirondacks.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...As of 1000 PM EDT, latest radar shows some
echoes passing across areas north of I-90 with some
sprinkles/light showers reaching the ground where there is
higher reflectivity. Have updated PoPs slightly to reflect these
trends. Clouds will continue to increase from northwest to
southeast through the overnight with the steadiest rain
beginning across areas north and west of Albany between 4-7am
before advancing eastward through Sunday morning.

Previous Discussion:
A lobe of upper-level vorticity pivoting to the east this
afternoon and evening will see diminishing showers through this
evening as shortwave ridging builds in tonight. With a locally
tight surface pressure gradient in place and deep mixing beneath
the upper-level cold pool, gusty west- northwest winds reaching
25-35 mph are expected to continue through this evening. Brief
subsidence associated with shortwave ridging will aid in
weakening the gradient as winds diminish later this evening and
overnight tonight.

A second lobe of upper vorticity wrapping about the parent upper
trough will see a compact area of surface low pressure track
eastward along the PA/NY border and into southern New England.
This system will bring a steadier period of rain overnight and
into Sunday morning. Temperatures look to remain somewhat mild
during ongoing rainfall, reaching overnight lows in the upper
40s to upper 50s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the second shortwave exits to the east by Sunday evening,
steady rain in the morning will transition to a more showery
distribution. Relatively steep lapse rates beneath the upper
cold pool may support sufficient instability to see isolated
thunderstorms develop through the afternoon, with gusty winds
and small hail possible within brief convective storms.
Temperatures remain similar to today, reaching afternoon highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid
70s at lower elevations. Showers decrease in coverage through
the evening, with rain most likely in the southwestern
Adirondacks in closer proximity to enhancement by lake moisture.
Overnight temperatures trend slightly cooler beneath clearing
skies, reaching lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the
region.

Another upper shortwave trough looks to pivot through the
region on Monday, bringing additional chances for scattered
showers. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms, with
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s in high terrain
and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Robust height
increases aloft through Monday night as large-scale troughing
finally exits eastward will see dry weather return across the
region, with lows remaining cool in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large-scale upper ridging will build over much of the East Coast
while a cutoff upper low lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. Largely
dry conditions will return to the region, although isolated
diurnally-forced showers are possible Tuesday afternoon beneath
partly cloudy skies. Temperatures look to remain near normal,
reaching highs in the the 60s to mid 70s across the region.
Clearing skies overnight will see temperatures fall to lows in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Upper-level ridging centered to the east of the forecast area
with subsequent mid-level southwesterly flow overhead look to
persist through the latter half of the week. This pattern may
yield temperatures trending well above normal by the end of the
workweek, reaching highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s to
near 90 degrees at lower elevations by Friday. Overnight lows
will likely trend milder as well, with temperatures only
falling into the 50s to mid 60s each of Wednesday through
Saturday nights.

An upper-level trough approaching late in the week looks to
bring the next widespread chances for rain showers to the region
as a surface cold front passes over the region Thursday or
Friday into next weekend. Given the antecedent airmass in place,
thunderstorms remain possible, particularly following peak
diurnal heating Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions to start the period with mid
level clouds in place. However, conditions will deteriorate with
widespread rain developing from NW to SE between 09z-12z. Will
mention prevailing rain at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, but the steadiest
rain may stay just north of KPOU where at TEMPO is mentioned.
Flying conditions will lower to MVFR within 1-2 hours of rain
onset, with occasional IFR expected for a few hours prior to
ending.

Rain will end rather quickly by around 15z-17z, with conditions
improving to MVFR then VFR during the afternoon. Scattered SHRA
and isolated TSRA then possible late afternoon into the evening
hours as another disturbance moves through. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible, but did not include with this
issuance due to low confidence.

Winds will initially be south-southwest around 3-8 kt, becoming
northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt
during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL/Picard/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...JPV