394
FXUS64 KAMA 272354
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
654 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Quiet and benign weather continues to hold over the Panhandles
this afternoon as an upper-level ridge build in over the area.
However, do not expect this weather to last much longer as the
lower levels of the atmosphere begin to set up a more active
pattern. To go into further details, to our west a low pressure
system is moving in and expected to stall for the next couple of
days. This low will work in tandem with a high pressure system off
the Gulf Coast to create good southerly flow across the western
Texas and the Panhandles, which will then allow good moisture to
flow into the area. As it stands, latest observations have already
begun to see this expected moisture with dewpoints across the CWA
already on the rise this afternoon. With moisture surging in, the
atmosphere will be primed to showers and thunderstorms for most
of the week with multiple CAMs suggesting we may evening see
activity start as early as tonight.

However, better chances will likely follow tomorrow with the
arrival of a short-wave disturbance for the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to follow with potential to last into the
overnight, but it is the impact where the confidence begins to
wain. As it stands, CAMs are expecting MLCAPE to reach around 2500
to 3000 J/kg with good effective shear present at 30 to 40 kt. The
RAP its self has been very consistent a pocket of 4000 J/kg of
MLCAPE running across the southeast that afternoon as well, which
would indicate the potential for very large hail. However with
PWAT values expected be greater than 1 inch and storm motions
under 25 kt, there is real potential that we see a lot of rain and
concerns shift more to the flooding aspect. Of course there is
also the option of something in between, like getting a lot of
small hail rather than isolated large hail. As for the potential
for tornadoes, currently most model are running on the very low
end of the possibility, but there is some potential present in the
south where 0 to 3 km shear is much better. Regardless, much on
these ingredients will have to be monitor clear into initiation
Tuesday afternoon as they are still able to change, especially if
we do get showers and thunderstorm tonight that last clear into
tomorrow morning.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Looking ahead to several chances of rain and thunderstorms
throughout a good portion of the Panhandles, with obvious tweaks
to the forecast as we approach each coming day. To start on
Wednesday, leftover elevated showers and thunderstorms from the
previous evening will move east across the eastern Panhandles
throughout the first half of the day. Latest 27/12Z model and
numerical guidance shows a low amplitude ridge impacting general
UL subsidence over the majority of the Panhandles on Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, as the central and northern Plains has aided lift
from a broad area of PVA ejecting out of the central Rockies, the
southern extent of said convection may impact our northern
combined Panhandles with the higher chances being there.

Thursday also looks to be quite an interesting day for strong to
severe convection. Cloud cover, along with more accurate timing
of other mesoscale features will have to be analyzed more closely.
However, a notable H500 neutral tiled trough moving east with its
main axis extending south of the Four Corners Region will place
the best diffluence over the Panhandles for organized lift across
the region. If cloud cover can diminish, along with decent CAPE
values in place, this low shear, high CAPE environment could
suffice for strong to severe thunderstorms. In-conjunction with
large hail and damaging wind gusts with severe storms, PWAT values
are in the 99th percentile for this time of year, so any training
and/or slow moving thunderstorms could produce localized flooding.

With series of perturbations moving east across the Rockies,
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
straight through the coming weekend. Intensity and/or coverage of
thunderstorms will be better analyzed each passing day with
frequent updates. With the exception of the airmass in the wake
of the cold front by Friday with highs below average, the
remainder of the forecast period from Wednesday through the coming
weekend will feature temperatures above average as we approach
the end of May into early June.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Breezy wind conditions will settle down this evening and calmer
southeasterly flow will remain in place through tomorrow.
Thunderstorm chances are present at all terminal sites in the late
afternoon and evening tomorrow. Confidence has increase enough to
introduce PROB30 groups at the end of the TAF period. VFR
conditions should prevail through this period until thunderstorms
advance onto the TAF sites. Ceilings are then forecast to drop to
MVFR.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  86  58  76 /  10  50  60  40
Beaver OK                  58  83  58  79 /  20  50  70  40
Boise City OK              53  82  55  78 /  20  50  60  50
Borger TX                  63  89  61  81 /  10  50  70  40
Boys Ranch TX              61  90  58  82 /  10  50  60  30
Canyon TX                  60  88  58  76 /  10  50  60  40
Clarendon TX               62  86  59  75 /  10  60  70  50
Dalhart TX                 55  84  54  79 /  10  50  60  40
Guymon OK                  56  83  56  79 /  20  50  70  40
Hereford TX                60  91  58  80 /   0  50  50  40
Lipscomb TX                61  82  59  78 /  20  50  70  40
Pampa TX                   61  84  59  77 /  10  50  70  40
Shamrock TX                63  83  60  77 /  20  60  70  50
Wellington TX              64  86  61  78 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55