205
FXUS64 KAMA 181951
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
251 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Today will be hot and dry with temperatures widespread in the
90s, with Palo Duro Canyon possibly reaching the triple digits.
Otherwise, per satellite imagery as of 1:30 PM, there are two areas
of apparent lift: the northeastern combined Panhandles where cumulus
have developed, and northern New Mexico where there is a broader
field of cumulus. There is a very low chance (10%) for a shower to
either move into the northwest from New Mexico, or an even lower
chance (<10%) for a shower to develop in the central Texas
Panhandle. If either case occurs, the very hot and dry conditions
would favor gusty winds and very little to no rain at the surface.

Tonight, low-level moisture will move back into the Panhandle as
surface winds turn southeasterly to easterly. A subtle shortwave
trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will approach the
Panhandles later Sunday morning as a surface trough pushes east
through much of the Panhandles. Unsurprisingly, there is
disagreement among guidance regarding how far east the surface
trough will be by late tomorrow afternoon. Nontheless, forcing for
ascent arrives in the mid to late afternoon, and some CAMs develop a
high-based shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of eastern
Cimarron or Texas county. Should this occur, the the primary threats
would be damaging winds (given around 1700 J/kg DCAPE) and large
hail. These threats would increase as the quality of low-level
moisture increases with eastward extent. Of lower confidence but
still worth mentioning is that potential for a thunderstorm to
develop in the eastern stack of Texas Panhandle counties. There is
weaker forcing and more capping questions in this area, hence the
very low confidence. Should a thunderstorm develop, it could become
severe with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.
However, the question would then become whether or not it can mature
enough to become severe before moving into western Oklahoma. Besides
the severe thunderstorm threat, Sunday will likely be hotter than
today with Borger and Palo Duro Canyon favored to reach triple
digits.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A little bit going on in the extended. For the most part quiet
weather is expected for the majority of the Panhandles. That being
said, we are still looking at a hot day on Monday with
temperatures likely exceeding 100 degrees in the Palo Duro Canyon
State Park area. So it`s important to take the proper heat safety
precautions, and make sure to protect yourself from heat related
illnesses if your planning on being in the State Park area for
several hours. A weak cold front will knock temperatures back a
bit into the low 90s for highs on Tuesday, but Tuesday night will
get a secondary cold air push which will set highs for the low 80s
on Wednesday. At this time we`ll transition from zonal flow back
to some southwest flow on Wednesday night into Thursday as another
upper level disturbance makes its way in from the Pacific
Northwest. Some return moisture from the Gulf along with a
possible dryline setup will allow for possible severe storms on
Thursday afternoon. If storms can form of the dryline they would
likely be discrete and would likely be severe with all hazards
possible. Right now confidence is very low, as SPC outlook is
further east, but the eastern Panhandles could still see
something. Again, this is a highly conditional severe threat.
Friday, southwest flow ramps up again as the upper trough axis to
the north takes a pendulum swing from southwest to northeast, and
that sets up a pretty good dryslot scenario, for elevated
(possibly critical) Fire Weather. Breezy winds 20-30 mph with RH
values below 10 percent as well as temperatures back in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the next 24 hours. There is
a very low chance for a shower to develop this afternoon in the
Oklahoma and central Texas Panhandle, thus possibly impacting
KGUY and KAMA. If this happens, there could be a strong downdraft
associated with the shower. Otherwise, surface winds will
generally be around 10-15 kts and turn southeasterly this evening
then southerly to southwesterly tomorrow morning. Low-level wind
shear is expected at KGUY tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  97  57  98 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  63  98  57  98 /  10  20  10   0
Boise City OK              53  92  53  93 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  64 102  58 102 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              58  99  54 100 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  56  97  54  98 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               60  97  60  98 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 53  93  51  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  59  96  53  96 /  10  20   0   0
Hereford TX                56  98  54  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                64  96  60  98 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   62  97  59  99 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                63  97  60  99 /   0  10  10   0
Wellington TX              63  98  62 100 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52