491
FXUS64 KAMA 141742
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Abnormally warm temperatures continue today. Although there won`t be
a downsloping aspect to the surface winds for much of the area
unlike yesterday, 850mb temperatures look to be at least a few
degrees warmer which should result in similar high temperatures for
much of the Panhandles. A surface trough will mix eastward through
the day, moving as far east as somewhere in the two easternmost
stacks of counties. Still, there will be enough mid-level moisture
for cumulus development in the late morning/afternoon hours even
west of the surface trough. As temperatures reach the convective
temperature, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible primarily in roughly the southeastern half of the CWA.
Forecast soundings show a very well defined inverted-V thermodynamic
profile suggesting the potential for any shower or thunderstorm to
be capable of producing winds up to 55 mph, though a wind gust of 60
to 70 mph can`t be ruled out. Finally... Palo Duro Canyon will be
close to Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees), but will hold off
given two factors: First... although the winds will mostly be
favored for heat enhancement, it is getting later in the year thus
there may not be as much heating within the Canyon due to the lower
sun angle. Second... it appears quite favorable that cumulus clouds
will develop in the late morning/afternoon hours, and there is a
chance for thunderstorms potentially as early as 2 PM.

Sunday... highs will be at least a couple degrees less hot across
the Panhandles, but still well above average for mid-September. Dry
air aloft, which was originally brought in to the Gulf of Mexico
from the cyclonic flow around the low pressure stuck in the mid-
South, will get advected into the Texas Panhandle today. This could
inhibit the development of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon, though there are some hints of just-in-time mid-level
moisture moving in by the late afternoon. Although several CAMs
suggest there is some potential for showers and thunderstorms, NBM
gives less than 10% PoPs. Won`t be surprised if there is some
activity Sunday afternoon, especially if mid-level moisture moves in
quicker than currently anticipated, but will leave the very low NBM
PoPs in for now.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely return to
the forecast area Monday afternoon through Friday as hard to time
minor upper level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall large
scale western states upper level trof may impact the southern high
plains. There may be a day or two within the long term periods in
which better precipitation chances occur as well as a relative
minimum on a couple days. Which days end up better for shower and
thunderstorm development and which ones end up drier is rather
problematic this far out in time. Medium range models and the
associated ensembles are in better agreement with the overall
upper level pattern but continue to disagree on the hard to time
smaller scale disturbances embedded in the flow. Therefore, have
continued to incorporate the NBM pops for all periods of the long
term forecast, with further adjustments likely as time gets
closer. Temperatures will slowly ease downward slightly from
Monday through Friday, and this trend is reflected in the NBM
temperatures.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Breezy, northerly winds continue for the next few hours at GUY.
Otherwise, light and variable winds exist and the remaining two
TAF sites. Later this evening winds will return to a more
southerly flow, but they will still be light at all sites.
Thunderstorms may generate near the AMA terminal this afternoon,
but confidence is low for direct impacts to the airport. Storms
should stay outside the 5 mile radius of the terminal, so mentions
of showers and thunder have been omitted from the TAF. If the
situation changes and thunderstorm coverage expands on top of AMA,
amendments will become necessary down the line. No thunderstorm
activity is expected at the other two sites today.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  96  64  93 /  10  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  60  95  63  94 /  10  10  10  20
Boise City OK              57  93  60  89 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  63 100  65  97 /  10  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              63  96  63  94 /   0  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  63  95  62  92 /  10  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               63  96  64  94 /  20  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 57  93  58  90 /   0  10  20  10
Guymon OK                  57  96  62  93 /   0  10  10  10
Hereford TX                62  96  62  93 /  10  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                63  96  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   63  95  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                63  96  65  94 /  20  10  10  10
Wellington TX              65  98  66  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55