186
FXUS64 KAMA 180534
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

- Severe thunderstorms possible in the west. Damaging winds and
  perhaps quarter size hail.  Heavy rain.

- Isolated severe storms possible in the southeast Wednesday
  afternoon.

- More thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thunderstorms have developed across the mountains of New Mexico
early this afternoon.  These storms should continue to increase in
coverage as the lift from the base of the upper level positively
tilted trough moves northeast across eastern New Mexico atop a low
level moist airmass.  A line of thunderstorms is expected to
approach the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by late this
afternoon.  Some of these thunderstorms may be severe as they cross
over into the western Panhandles with damaging winds the main
threat.  Some hailstones to the size of quarters will also be
possible.  As the storms move toward the central Panhandles they are
expected to weaken as the upper level lift from the trough will be
moving northeast into Kansas and instability will be weakening.
However, storms could linger all the way across the eastern
Panhandles late tonight.  Gusty southerly winds this afternoon are
expected to decrease some this evening. However, a low level jet may
keep some areas gusting through much of the night even outside of
thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to lie across the
southeast Texas Panhandle.  This trough may become a focus for
additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon into the
evening.  Again, a storm or two may become severe with damaging
winds the main thereat given the adequate shear and instability.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thursday remains dry at this time as a ridge pokes up over Texas
ahead of the next upper level low moving into California.  Showers
and thunderstorms should return to the Panhandles Friday and
Saturday ahead and along with the passage of this upper low as it
moves through the 4-corners region and out into northwest Kansas by
Saturday night.  A cold front should push through the Panhandles
Saturday night behind this system effectively shutting off the rain
for Sunday and Monday.

Highs through Friday are expected to remain above average.  Highs
may remain around average on Saturday depending on how cloudy and
rainy it ends up being.  Sunday and Monday should then be below
average behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers and storms continue near KDHT and KGUY, with a better
chance of impacts for KGUY over the next couple hours. Most
activity will remain north of KDHT, and storms should be east of
all TAF sites after 09z. Winds will come down slightly tonight,
but could be breezy at times out of the south. Breezy gusts of
20-30kts out of the southwest return at all sites during the
afternoon hours. Storms will be possible again tomorrow evening,
but highest confidence is east of all terminals.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  67  95  69 /  20   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  95  66  95  66 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              88  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  98  68 100  70 /  20   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              93  63  95  66 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  92  65  94  67 /  20   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  68  97  70 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 88  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  92  58  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                93  63  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                95  69  98  69 /  20  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   93  68  96  69 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                95  68  98  70 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              98  70 100  71 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38