471
FXUS64 KAMA 191131
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As of the latest 07Z observations, we continue to watch very heavy
rainfall rates from thunderstorms training within a vicinity of a
surface boundary in the wake of a slow south moving cold front.
This overrunning set up with decent H850 southerly flow advecting
north over the front for thunderstorms to develop could linger
past sunrise. In fact, as this front continues to move slowly
south throughout the day, the focal point of this storm, in-
conjunction with any other surface boundary collisions, i.e. the
dryline now currently across eastern New Mexico will be the focus
for convection later this afternoon, especially favoring areas
currently not experiencing heavy rain for later on. At this time,
the best chance for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon should be
areas closest to the TX/NM stateline where large hail, damaging
winds, and flash flooding will be the main hazards. CAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg, effective shear around 20-25 kts and PWAT values
over an inch should result in thunderstorm chances with heavy
rainfall rates at times. Rain chances overall for the central and
western TX Panhandle where the best chances exist should wrap up
by midnight tonight as the main areas for lift move south and west
of the CWA. High temperatures will be below average for late June
with highs in the 70s/80s, but with Td values well into the 60s,
it will fell quite muggy outside today.

Instability drops off quite a bit for tomorrow, and so will our
overall rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms due to diurnal
heating are still expected. However, the periphery of the main
H700-500 high pressure system will move further west into the
eastern combined Panhandles. This will shift the better moisture
transport axis further to the west and south mainly into the Texas
South Plains and eastern New Mexico. We still cannot completely
rule out thunderstorm chances for the southern and western Texas
Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon, but overall severe chances remain
low at this time. High temperatures tomorrow will remain cooler
than average but also still muggy with highs ranging from the
upper 70s in the western TX Panhandle where rain chances are
highest to upper 80s in the eastern Panhandles where chances are
the lowest.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As the tropical system from the Gulf Coast moves further NW along
the Rio Grande with its more apparent anemic moisture source with
time, rain chances will drop off for the Panhandles, with the
potential exception of the far western TX Panhandle, near the
best axis of moisture transport. Otherwise, under the H500 high
pressure as it shifts from east to west across the southern CONUS,
a nice day for most areas with high temperatures near average.

Starting Saturday through the remainder of the long term forecast
period, latest 19/00Z model and numerical guidance shows a quasi
stationary H500 high pressure system in New Mexico. This will
allow diurnally convection to develop based off a series of dirty
ridge rollers that move off the NM/CO high terrain and into the
Plains. Daily chances for thunderstorms are the result of this
pattern. Chances overall are not that high (~30%), but each day
favors the north central and northwestern combined Panhandles for
thunderstorms in mean H500 NW flow, where strong wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall will be main hazard with any robust
thunderstorm. High temperatures from this weekend into next week
should be above average for late June.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Range of IFR to VFR cigs to start the 12Z TAF period across the
TAF sites. All sites will have a period of seeing sub VFR through
about 18-20Z before VFR conditions return to all TAF sites. KGUY
currently has TSRA conditions where erratic winds are possible
through around 14Z. Starting around 18Z through 00Z Thursday,
VCTS conditions return to all TAF sites with erratic winds from
storms possible. Storm chances should diminish after 06Z Thursday.
Overall winds should be out of the south and southeast at 5-15
kts with higher gusts at times.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  65  81  66 /  30  30  20  20
Beaver OK                  82  65  87  67 /  70  30  10  10
Boise City OK              79  63  83  61 /  70  70  20  10
Borger TX                  90  68  88  69 /  50  40  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              87  65  84  67 /  50  50  20  30
Canyon TX                  84  63  79  64 /  30  30  30  20
Clarendon TX               85  65  79  67 /  20  20  30  20
Dalhart TX                 83  63  83  62 /  50  60  20  20
Guymon OK                  81  64  86  65 /  70  40  10  10
Hereford TX                87  65  80  65 /  20  40  30  30
Lipscomb TX                86  66  86  68 /  60  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   85  65  83  67 /  40  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                88  66  84  68 /  20  10  20  10
Wellington TX              88  67  84  69 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29