656
FXUS64 KAMA 200530
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to below normal at most locations late this weekend into
early next week.

An upper level storm system is expected to bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the area Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Some storms may become severe Saturday afternoon and evening across
the western half of the area, with damaging winds and large hail
the primary hazards.

Another upper level storm system may impact the region late Monday
night into Wednesday and could bring more precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Hot temperatures for Sep continue today and tomorrow across the
area. Underneath high pressure today the FA should remain dry with
one caveat. The southeastern Texas Panhandle which is seeing Tds
in the upper 60s has around a 10 percent chance for a stray
shower/thunderstorm. This is will be thanks to a surface boundary
created by a surface trough that could allow low level moisture
and possibly some convergence to help with lift. Tomorrow, an
approaching upper level low will bring additional chances of rain,
this time mainly in the western and far northern combined
Panhandles.

Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery, the low that is
expected to bring initial rain chances to the area tomorrow with
the main show on Sat is located on the coast of CA just south of
the Bay Area. By tomorrow morning this low is progged to be
centered on the coast of far southern CA. Through the day the low
will gradually push east ending up just south of the southern tip
of NV. During this time the mid to upper level ridge shifts just
enough to work with the low in bringing a plume of Pacific
moisture up into area from the west coast of Mexico. The initial
moisture and possible PVA with initial perturbations in the flow
aloft have given some 20 PoPs to the western combined Panhandles
and eventually the OK Panhandle tomorrow evening. Timing is a bit
uncertain with the precipitation tomorrow. However, the afternoon
hours are looking to be the most likely time with a small chance
of rain before 1 PM or after 7 PM. Again this is mainly looking
like only a fraction of the overall FA in the west and far north.
Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, with maybe an
isolated severe storm popping early in the day across the far
western combined Panhandles.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A mid to upper level low pressure system is progged to bring in
some rain chances Sat into Sat then bring a cold front Sun to cool
temperatures off to near normal. Depending on the track of this
upper level low, which still holds a bit of uncertainty, will
determine how much of the combined Panhandles will see a
significant or beneficial rainfall. Chances are higher to see more
widespread rain Sat compared to Fri, with 70 to 80 pops across the
west to northwestern half of the combined Panhandles Sat into Sat
night. The track of the low will play a key role in where these
higher pops end up with a chance for some isolated rain amounts
well above half and inch, maybe even an inch. Further south and
east are less favorable with Amarillo only seeing a 50 to 60 PoP
at this time. Some models do have the upper low weakening as it
gets into AZ and then shoot straight northeast into UT. This kind
of track can make the southeastern combined Panhandles less
favorable for any beneficial moisture.

Depending on quickly the upper level trough swings to the
northeast some lingering showers/thunder could be possible in the
eastern FA on Sun. Have stayed with NBM PoPs giving the eastern
Panhandles 20 to 30 for the 7 AM to 1 PM time period. The NBM is
also painting the far southeast TX Panhandle with 30 to 40 PoPs
after 1 PM on Sun. This may not come to fruition as the cold front
with this system pushes through and sinks the higher Tds to
further to the south and southeast. The front may help bring lift
for thunderstorms on Sun. However, depending on the track of the
upper level low the available moisture may be displaced away from
the FA with a dry slot setting up over the area. One thing to
mention about Sunday as well is the that the highs on Sunday with
the NBM has come in a few degrees warmer compared to the previous
forecast.

For the rest of the extended, the FA is progged to have
temperatures near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some
additional precip chances will be possible starting late Mon into
Tue as another trough digs down from MT into Colorado then
eventually forming a closed low over the Four Corners Region late
Tue. The NBM is giving 20 to 40 PoPs across the area favoring the
southwest this time.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Winds will become
southerly to southwesterly and will increase near 18z at all sites
with gusts up to 25 kts expected. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible at KDHT and KGUY late in this TAF cycle, but
confidence was not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this
time. Winds should decrease after 00z unless a shower or storm is
near a terminal.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  68  89  60 /  10  10  50  70
Beaver OK                  99  69  89  58 /  20  10  50  80
Boise City OK              89  61  76  51 /  30  20  80  90
Borger TX                 101  69  94  61 /  10  10  50  70
Boys Ranch TX              95  65  86  57 /  20  20  70  80
Canyon TX                  94  65  89  59 /  10  10  60  60
Clarendon TX               97  68  92  64 /   0   0  30  50
Dalhart TX                 88  61  78  52 /  20  30  80  80
Guymon OK                  95  64  83  54 /  20  10  70  90
Hereford TX                95  65  89  58 /  10  10  60  60
Lipscomb TX               100  71  94  61 /  20   0  30  60
Pampa TX                   97  68  91  60 /  10  10  40  70
Shamrock TX                99  69  94  65 /   0   0  20  40
Wellington TX             100  69  97  66 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05