086
FXUS61 KBGM 050537
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is expected on Wednesday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and
continuing overnight. A slow moving upper level low pressure
system brings cooler temperatures and more showers to the
region starting Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM Update

Added in some valley fog where skies are mainly clear, from
Elmira to Binghamton northeastward. Also tweaked overnight lows
down a degree or two, again owing to the clear skies over the
northeast portion of the CWA.

Previous Discussion Below

Quiet weather is still expected through the night. Some mid and
high level clouds should prevent fog formation. Also watching
the potential for some low clouds to sneak into the Wyoming
valley as well overnight.

Tomorrow will be another warm day, with highs well into the 80s
for most of the area. Most of the day should remain dry, but an
approaching warm front from the south will kick off some
scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon/early
evening. Warm front continue moving into the area overnight and
scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue. Model guidance
has really cut back on the amount of rain that is expected with
this first wave of showers and storms tomorrow night with the
best instability and forcing holding off until Thursday. Started
to pull back on PoPs and QPF some from the previous forecast,
but will wait another model cycle and see how the CAMs respond
as we get a little closer before pulling back too much. NAMNest
is really sparse with any convective activity through the
overnight hours, while the HRRR is more aggressive at this time.
Based on the little amount of instability with MUCAPE values of
just a couple of hundred joules on model soundings, starting to
lean towards less coverage in convection Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
310 PM Update...

An upper-level low moving over the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night into Thursday will push a frontal boundary into Central NY
and NE PA. Deep southwesterly flow will supply warm, moist air
into the air, helping to drive prolonged rainfall through the
day on Thursday. This initial frontal boundary appears
progressive, decreasing chances for flooding. Though, with the
combination of high precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8
inches, as well as long, skinny CAPE profiles in soundings and
the warm cloud layer between 10-11 kft, there is still a chance
for flash flooding in areas were heavy rain trains. Overall,
we`re currently looking at total rainfall values of up to a half
inch to three-quarter inch of rain mainly east of I-81, and
between a quarter to a half inch of rainfall west of I-81.
Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center has our area under a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding (at least 5% chance of flash
flooding) for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 PM Update...

The aforementioned upper-level low will swing down further into
our area and become quasi-stationary through the weekend.
Chances for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms will remain
through Sunday morning, before this system finally pushes off to
the east-northeast. We`ll see a very slight warm up as this
system exits the area, but will mainly be in the 70s all
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

135 AM Update

VFR conditions are expected for most of the area through most of
the taf period. There are sct to bkn high level cirrus clouds
streaming over the area early this morning; this should prevent
fog formation in most locations. ELM could still see some light
fog/mist for a few hours toward daybreak...for now covered this
with an MVFR TEMPO in the taf from 08-12z due to the high level
of uncertainty in near term guidance for fog formation.

Otherwise, the rest of the taf sites are expected to remain VFR
this morning, afternoon and early evening. Then, scattered rain
showers move in from SW to NE after 00z this evening bringing
MVFR/MVFR fuel alt restrictions to AVP, BGM, ELM and ITH toward
the end of the taf period. There is a low chance for some
thunderstorms in this timeframe as well, but probability of
thunder was too low to include in the tafs this far out in time.
SYR and RME remain VFR through the end of the taf period
(06/06z).

Winds become southerly/southwest later this morning at 8-15 kts,
then turn back southeasterly in the evening hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday... Scattered showers and
thunderstorms around with MVFR Fuel Alt and even IFR
restrictions likely. Lifting back to mainly VFR after around
18z Thursday afternoon.


Thursday night through Sunday...

Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MJM/MWG