779
FXUS61 KBGM 132343
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
743 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward through the region
with showers and thunderstorms through Monday. High pressure
looks to briefly build into the region Tuesday before another
cold front sweeps through the region later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A hot and humid airmass coupled with a slow moving cold front
will provide a favorable setup for the development of showers
and thunderstorms through most of the night. PW values are still
high from 1.5-2 inches maintaining the threat for heavy
downpours. However, shear values remain fairly low which will
lead to slow storm motions and potential training and
backbuilding of showers and thunderstorms. A few locations could
see 2-3 inches of rain in a couple of hours resulting in some
localized urban and flash flooding. A few localized downbursts
are still possible as well. The flood watch has been expanded
into most of CNY and the northern Tier of PA based on the
coverage shown on the latest 12Z set of mesoscale model
guidance. Indications are some showers and thunderstorms will
persist through the overnight as well.

A marine layer once again attempts to build into the region from
the south and southeast overnight. River valley locations
outside the marine layer that see rain today have the potential
for some patchy fog. Another muggy night with lows around 70.


With the slow frontal passage Monday temperatures do look
slightly cooler. Areas east of I-81 look to become unstable
again ahead of the front leading to an additional round of
showers and thunderstorms. Not much change in the overall setup
so heavy downpours and flooding are still a concern. 0-6 KM bulk
shear looks slightly higher so thunderstorms may be slightly
better organized with enough mid-level dry air for a downburst
or two. Slightly less muggy Monday night with lows in the mid
and upper 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure noses into the region Tuesday into the first part
of Wednesday. This looks to squeeze any thunderstorm chances
near and south of the Scranton area Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Southern portions of the area also look to have the
highest chance for any pop-up thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening. With high amounts of modeled instability Wednesday
afternoon some downburst potential exists as well in addition to
heavy rainfall. Modeled 925 mb temperatures still indicate
highs around 90 each afternoon. Lowered NBM dewpoints once again
each afternoon based on recent biases. Still heat index values
get close to 95 for some valley locations in CNY. Muggy lows
around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensemble guidance has trended slower with the passage of the
next cold front with it looking like a Friday passage now. This
would continue to keep a similar pattern to Wednesday going with
muggy lows near 70, highs pushing 90. The environment ahead of
the front should be sufficient for multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Both heavy rainfall and strong to severe
thunderstorm threats may become realized as we get closer in
time. Cooling and drying trend next weekend after the frontal
passage. Some upper level energy may keep a few showers around
though.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible into the late
evening hours, mainly for ELM, BGM, and AVP. Brief restrictions
are possible for the next few hours at those terminals.
Conditions dry out tonight, though a marine layer moves in and
will bring ceilings down to IFR at AVP and BGM. ELM will be
right on the edge of the marine layer but fog will be possible.
RME will also see ceilings fall to at least Fuel Alt tonight and
fog cannot be ruled out though confidence was too low to include
fog at this time.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
tomorrow. The best chances will be at AVP and BGM, so prob30
groups were included with the timing being 18 to 21z. Some
uncertainty remains with coverage and timing. Similarly to
today, restrictions will be possible with showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, all terminals should be VFR by 15z
tomorrow.

Winds have been light and variable except when showers move
overhead. Some gusts will be possible with incoming showers and
storms. Otherwise, winds will remain light for most of the
period.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR; lingering showers possible at AVP.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR. A spotty thunderstorm
with restrictions can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday... Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Monday for PAZ038>040.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Monday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL