024
FXUS63 KFGF 181744
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms for most of
  the FA this afternoon and evening, including the potential
  for supercells.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Mainly light showers continue to lift north across the Red River
Valley into western MN. Starting to get on the edge of the
clearing line so it seems like the more active scenario may
possibly pan out? Some bubbly cumulus north from eastern SD into
our area so will have to closely monitor as it moves into our
area.

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Band of showers and thunderstorms lifting into the Northern Red
River Valley, including some pretty heavy rainfall over the
Pembina Gorge. With recent heavy rains in the area, FLASH unit
streamflow lighting up, and 3 hour flash flood guidance met,
went with a flash flood warning for that area.

More showers and thunderstorms moving up from the south, so
there is some question as to how much we will destabilize from
the surface later today. The HRRR is not very bullish and keeps
the back edge of the clearing pretty quiet this afternoon. Some
of the other CAMs are a little more active, however, and there
is the scenario where we could get some clusters or even some
mini supercells to fire as the upper low wraps up over the
western Dakotas and sends frontal boundary and lead shortwave
into our CWA. Will have to watch closely how conditions evolve
as we head into mid-day.

UPDATE
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The most consistent area of showers and storms is currently
moving through the Devils Lake region, otherwise the activity
elsewhere is pretty isolated. The line near Devils Lake will
continue lifting north, while the isolated activity elsewhere
will continue through the morning as well. There should still be
a break after this current activity fades before stronger
activity gets going again this afternoon. The lower visibilities
due to fog have generally improved.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Synopsis...

This will be an abbreviated discussion this morning due to
ongoing convection and backing up WFO Bismarck.

...Severe potential this afternoon and evening..

The new SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook is a bit different than it
was at this time yesterday. It now covers the far eastern FA
with a Level 1 out of 5 risk too, and leaves out the western
Devils Lake region down through areas west of the Valley City.
There is a Level 2 out of 5 risk for portions of the far
southern Red River Valley, which clips portions of Richland/
Wilkin and Otter Tail and all of Grant County.

To start, there are always questions with what happens after the
morning convection (ie residual boundaries or outflow, cloud
trends, etc.). As has been the case for quite a few days in a
row now, there is plenty of moisture. Surface dewpoints may get
close to 70 degrees this afternoon, with precipitable water
values close to 2 inches. That is pretty amazing for mid
September! The morning clouds should give way to some sunshine,
which will lead to building instability by late morning into
the afternoon. Most CAMs seem to indicate a potential hour or
two break between the ending morning convection and re-
developing late morning and afternoon convection.

There was quite a bit of rainfall across the northern FA the
other day, so if any storms train across those areas today,
they could be susceptible to additional flooding. Pretty hard to
nail down where that might be at this point, so will just keep
that in mind for now. The low level jet never really goes away
today, but does seem to fluctuate in intensity. Don`t see a
consistent focus area, but it will definitely keep the moisture
feed coming northward. The HREF develops some more consistent UH
tracks by mid to late afternoon along the RRV, continuing into
the early to mid evening east of the RRV. So it should be
another busy day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Currently VFR at most of the TAF sites with scattered rain
showers. Some intensification to thunderstorms is possible at
least at a few of the TAF sites, so kept the tempo groups with
thunder in them for now. Mostly VFR conditions but heavier rain
and sometimes ceilings around 3000 ft could bring conditions
down to MVFR for a brief period. Winds from the southeast will
continue, with some low level wind shear at a few airports later
tonight. Winds will shift to the southwest by the end of the
period with some gusts over 20 kts as surface low pressure lifts
up into Canada.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/JR/TT
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR