392
FXUS65 KFGZ 291725
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1025 AM MST Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm conditions along with reoccurring afternoon
breezes out of the west to southwest each day this week, weekend,
and into next week. Today looks to have a bit stronger gusts, but
overall, the uptick in wind will have minimal impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...A few clouds meander across northern Arizona this
morning from west-southwest to east-northeast with most of the
area experiencing plenty of sunshine. By mid-morning, winds have
already begun to strengthen. Sporadic gusts indicate an increase
in velocity compared to earlier this week. A slight upward
adjustment was made to the wind forecast to account for the
observed stronger winds. Anticipate the gusts becoming more
consistent throughout the day with gusts of 20 to 25 mph and
localized peak gusts near 30 mph. Winds will begin to weaken
around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /207 AM MST/...Overall little change in the
weather today compared to yesterday: a passing trough to our
north will bring a slight uptick in gusts this afternoon.

Zonal flow aloft will briefly set-up Thursday into Friday. During
this time, weather conditions will remain mostly unchanged
besides afternoon winds slacking slightly.

Another passing trough to our north over the weekend will result
in another brief uptick in winds, though otherwise the forecast
continues to remain mostly unchanging.

Ridging is expected to take over the first part of next work week.
Temperatures will start warming during this time with highs
expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday.

In the extended part of the forecast, models are still hinting at
a low pressure system setting up of the California coast to help
usher moisture into the area, so we will continue to monitor this.
Timing has shifted and pushed this back to the later part of next
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 29/18Z through Thursday 30/18Z...VFR
conditions will persist. Look for southwest winds at 5-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts diminishing to less than 10 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 30/18Z through Saturday 01/18Z...VFR conditions
will continue with light afternoon southwest winds generally less
than 15 kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Dry, warm weather
continues. Southwest winds at 5-15 mph both days with slightly
stronger gusts this afternoon. Afternoon RH values of 5-15% and
overnight recoveries of 25-45%.

Friday through Sunday...Warm, dry weather continues. Southwest winds
each day at 5-15 mph. Afternoon RHs of 5-15% with overnight recovery
ranging from 20-40%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/RKR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff