495
FXUS65 KFGZ 112329
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 PM MST Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures are expected today with isolated
to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and north
of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday, with slight
chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon through
Thursday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through the
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system centered over the Arizona/Utah
border during the afternoon was continuing to move eastward. For
the remainder of today, instability will remain in place from the
Mogollon Rim northward with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms continuing into the evening hours. The subcloud
layer will remain fairly dry so evaporational cooling in stronger
showers and storms has the potential to induce some local wind
gust in the 30 to 40 mph range. Activity is expected to come to an
end by midnight.

On Sunday...The current low heads east of Arizona. However,
moisture will linger over the area. The result will be, with
daytime heating, the development of cloud buildups over the
mountain areas with a few afternoon sprinkles or light showers.
The threat for any thunderstorms appears minimal but can never be
completely ruled out. Away from the mountains look for mostly to
partly sunny skies. Warmer daytime temperatures are forecast as
the cooler air mass associated with the low moves out of the area.
Behind the low winds will generally be from the northwest to
north at 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon gusts approaching 25
mph.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture lingers under high pressure. Not
much in the way of forcing except for daytime heating with
moisture values remaining marginal. The result, midday to
afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains each day with a slight
chance of showers. As mentioned above a stray thunderstorm is
always possible with the stronger spring sun. Daytime
temperatures will hover around seasonal averages but likely be the
warmest on Monday. Afternoon winds becoming west to southwest at
5 to 15 mph gusting to near 25 mph with the passing high.

Wednesday and Thursday...Another weak low will move over Arizona.
Look for an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms similar
to what is being observed today (Saturday).

Friday into next weekend...Warmer weather and dry conditions are
forecast as another high pressure system moves across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 12/00Z through Monday 13/00Z...Periods of MVFR
visibilities and mountain obscurations are forecast through 02Z
due to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA. After 02Z, expect clearing skies
and light winds. By 18Z Sunday, look for northwest winds 10-20
kts and a 10-20% chance for light rain showers over high terrain.

OUTLOOK...Monday 13/00Z through Wednesday 15/00Z...Chances for
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast
each afternoon through Wednesday, mainly confined to the high
terrain. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in any
storms, with much of the region remaining in VFR. Daytime winds
will blow from the west-southwest with gusts 15-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Above average temperatures
return on Sunday and continue to Monday. Isolated showers and a few
high-based thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mainly
confined to the Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau, White Mountains, and
the Chuska Mountains. Outside of any erratic outflow gusts from
storms, expect northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph on Sunday, followed
by west-southwest winds on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm chances persist
each afternoon through Thursday with the greatest coverage likely on
Wednesday. Precipitation totals of less than 0.10" are expected
during this time. The 5 degree above average temperatures continue
each day with minimum humidity of 15 to 20%. Afternoon winds will be
out of the west each day with gusts of 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff