606
FXUS65 KFGZ 180856
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
156 AM MST Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend
and through much of the coming week. Look for gusty afternoon
winds each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry
weather disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies were being observed across Arizona in
the early morning hours as a weak high pressure system headed
east of Arizona. For today and Sunday, Warm daytime temperatures
will continue. As the high moves eastward a long-wave trough
will begin to build over the western states. The result will be
strengthening pressure gradients for stronger winds and a distinct
shift to a more southwesterly direction. Afternoon sustained
winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts near 35 mph are likely
each day. It will remain dry.

On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger short-wave trough will rotate
through the western states long-wave pattern producing even
stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting
into the 40 to 50 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim
northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a
heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine
for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. By Tuesday
there will be enough moisture and dynamic lift combined with
cooling aloft associated with the short-wave trough for an outside
chance of high based showers near the Arizona/Utah border.
Elsewhere, dry. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday as the
short-wave moves eastward. High temperatures will cool some by
around 5 to 10 degrees compared to Sunday.

From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue
to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest
breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based
showers along the Arizona/Utah border.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/06Z through Sunday 19/06Z...VFR conditions
continue. Light winds overnight, becoming SW to W at 10-20 kts
gusting to 30 kts during the afternoon hours Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...VFR is expected
through the period. SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts on
Sunday. SW winds increase Monday to 20-25 kts with gusts 30-40
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions continue
through the weekend. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35
mph in the afternoon. Minimum RH values between 10-20%.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue.
Southwest winds 25-35 mph gusting to 40-50 mph on Monday. Winds
decrease to 10-20 mph for Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH values
will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical to critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of northern Arizona on
Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff