186
FXUS65 KFGZ 281004
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 AM MST Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry pattern, featuring warm daytime temperatures and
daily southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, will continue all week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ridging will persist today, allowing for
temperatures to continue to moderate. Said ridge will be shifting
later today as a trough moves on shore, passing us to the north.
Overall, the trough will be too far north to have any real impact
on our weather: it will simply bump winds up Wednesday a few MPH
compared to today.

Following Wednesday`s trough, zonal flow briefly sets up overhead
for Thursday before another trough moves onshore. It will once
again pass us by to the north and simply bring an uptick in winds
Friday into the weekend with afternoon gusts 20-30 mph.

Later in the weekend into the start of next week will see ridging
returning. While temperatures won`t have shifted much over the
previous days of the forecast despite the weather systems,
temperatures will start to moderate again with the returning
ridge.

In the extended part of the forecast, members of the GFS are
picking up on a low setting up on the California coast working
with the flow around the ridge to usher in moisture into Arizona
during the middle to later part of next week. On the flip side,
the Euro and its members are running drier during this. Will
continue monitoring this and see if said precip chance will
persist and increase in confidence or not.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 28/06Z through Wednesday 29/06Z...VFR conditions
with a few mid and high clouds. Light and variable wind overnight,
becoming southwest 10-15 kts, gusting up to 20 kts after 17Z.
Winds become light and variable again after 02-03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 29/06Z through Friday 31/06Z...Similar weather
the next few days as VFR conditions persist. SW breezes 10-15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts each afternoon. Light, variable surface
winds return overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Dry and warm with
afternoon temperatures a few degrees above average. Southwest winds
at 5-15 mph both days with slightly stronger gusts on Wednesday.
Afternoon RH values of 5-15% and overnight recoveries of 25-45%.

Thursday through Saturday...Warm, dry weather continues. Southwest
winds each day at 5-15 mph. Afternoon RHs of 5-15% with overnight
recovery ranging from 20-40%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...RKR/Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff